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Nomura Securities: Core chips for 800G/1.6T optical modules account for 66%–72% of BOM costs—U.S. optical chip suppliers are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. Nomura's latest research report indicates that the U.S. may introduce a 65% U.S. component content exemption threshold for next-gen 3.2T optical modules. This means Chinese optical module manufacturers could still maintain exports to the U.S. if they use a sufficient proportion of U.S. components. According to Nomura's calculations, in 800G and 1.6T EML/Silicon Photonics (SiPh) optical modules, optical lasers/chips, DSP, TIA/driver chips, and PD chips collectively account for 66%–72% of BOM costs, with optical lasers/chips alone making up 14%–23%. As a result, optical chips will be a key variable in meeting U.S. content requirements. If this policy is implemented, U.S. optical chip suppliers like LITE, COHR, and AVGO could benefit from order shifts, increased market share, and stronger pricing power. Electronic chip suppliers like MRVL and MTSI may also indirectly benefit. For leading Chinese optical module manufacturers such as Accelink and Eoptolink, the exemption mechanism could help maintain shipments to the U.S., but increasing the proportion of U.S. component purchases may drive up costs and compress profit margins. The upgrade to 3.2T optical modules means higher transmission rates, which will also drive supply chain value to concentrate further on U.S. upstream core chip manufacturers.

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