Institutions predict that the core CPI in the United States will slow down in September, and the overall CPI may rise to 3.7% year-on-year

Multiple Wall Street institutions predict that the month on month growth rate of core CPI in the United States will slow down to 0.21% in September. Due to the impact of rising energy prices, the overall CPI month on month growth rate will rise to 0.58%, with a year-on-year growth rate close to 3.7%. The median institutional forecast shows that the overall CPI in the United States rose by 3.64% year-on-year in September, the core CPI rose by 2.40% year-on-year, and the core PCE rose by 0.21% month on month. Deutsche Bank expects core CPI to rise by 0.16% month on month, while Morgan Stanley expects overall CPI to rise by 0.62% month on month. AI interpretation: The slowing trend of core inflation confirms the structural improvement of price pressure, but the overall inflation rebound driven by energy prices exposes the fragility of the inflation decline process. This differentiation reinforces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates to completely eradicate inflationary stickiness. The market's expectations for a short-term shift in monetary policy have been suppressed, and the high interest rate environment will continue for a longer period of time. This data combination forces investors to reassess the complexity of the downward trend in inflation and remain highly vigilant about subsequent tightening policies.