[Jiang Zhuoer’s View: The Risk of Quantum Attacks is Underestimated, Approximately 2.7 Million Lost BTC Could Be Stolen] According to a report by Jinse Finance on October 18, Jiang Zhuoer (@Jiangzhuoer2) posted that the risk of quantum attacks on Bitcoin is currently underestimated and not reasonably priced. He believes the likelihood of such an event occurring within 1.5 years is low, citing calculations that suggest 'Q-Day' is more likely to occur in the mid-2030s. With the development of AI-assisted research, the timeline for quantum attacks has shifted from '20-30 years later' to 'a few years later.' Based on his calculations, approximately 1.7 million BTC in P2PK format from Satoshi Nakamoto’s era (including about 1.1 million Satoshi coins), combined with an estimated 1 million BTC lost from the 5.17 million BTC exposed through P2PKH address reuse, totals around 2.7 million lost BTC that could be stolen via quantum attacks. This amount is comparable to the total holdings of ETFs, MicroStrategy, other major corporations, and various governments, which collectively hold 2.9 million BTC. If these stolen coins were dumped onto the market, it could drive the price of Bitcoin down to at least $10,000. He stated that directly invalidating lost coins would violate Bitcoin’s principle of the inviolability of private property. Believers advocate allowing hackers to steal the coins (BIP-360), while capital and organizations propose invalidating coins that are not migrated by a certain deadline (BIP-361). If the two sides cannot reach a compromise and a hard fork occurs, the scale of mutual destruction would far exceed the BCH split. He also mentioned that early lost coins on ETH are significantly fewer, and the only social value created by blockchain is RWA (Real-World Assets). Therefore, it may be inevitable for ETH to replace BTC as the cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization, with quantum attacks potentially serving as the most likely catalyst for this shift.