The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 83.9%, and the probability of keeping them unchanged in December is 9.8%

CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 83.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 16.1%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 9.8%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 76.1%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 14.2%. AI interpretation: The consensus in the market that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term is extremely stable, reflecting that the current monetary policy has entered a clear wait-and-see period. The pricing focus of the interest rate path has shifted towards the expected rate hike at the end of the year, indicating the market's deep concern about the risk of inflation rebound. This pricing structure directly suppresses expectations of interest rate cuts and strengthens the market logic of a long-term high interest rate environment. Investors are responding to the Federal Reserve's firm stance of maintaining a tightening stance by adjusting their positions.