7 x 24 快訊
更多 >今天 2026-11-03
HTX DeepThink: Interest rate and inflation data intensive approach, crypto market may face high volatility window in the next two weeks On October 23rd, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that institutional buying has rebounded, but short-term inflows are not yet sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. According to Farside data, the cumulative net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs from October 19th to 21st was approximately $1.075 billion. For the remaining trading days of this week, attention should be paid to the initial US PMI released at 21:45 on the 23rd, as well as the University of Michigan's consumer confidence and inflation expectations released at 22:00. If economic activity remains strong and price pressure continues to rise, the rebound may still be suppressed by interest rate expectations. Market volatility is expected to significantly increase next week. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 on the 29th and hold a press conference at 02:30; At 20:30 on the same day, the initial GDP data for the third quarter of the United States and the PCE data for September will be released successively. The market currently tends to maintain interest rates in October and raise them again in December. Simply suspending interest rate hikes may not necessarily constitute new positive news, and the direction depends more on subsequent tightening guidance. PCE was released later than the interest rate results, and the early morning rise may also be reversed by inflation data that evening. The interest rate meeting of the Bank of Japan on the 29th and 30th is also an external variable that needs attention. If the policy or guidance exceeds expectations and leans towards the hawkish side, driving the rapid appreciation of the yen, closing the position in carry trades may amplify the selling pressure on risky assets. During the US earnings season, the market reaction of technology stocks to profits and capital expenditures may also be transmitted to the risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market. In the next two weeks, the market is more likely to experience a process of shock recovery, event impact, and repricing, and a comprehensive general rise is still not a benchmark scenario. If the Federal Reserve weakens the signal of subsequent interest rate hikes, core PCE is lower than expected, and ETFs continue to have net inflows, BTC will have more conditions to break through this week's high and drive ETH and SOL to rise; If there is hawkish guidance, inflation exceeding expectations, or a rapid appreciation of the yen, the market may test recent lows again, and high volatility altcoins will be more fragile. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.