The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 90%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged in December is 23.8%.

According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 90%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 10%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 23.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 68.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 7.3%. AI Interpretation: Current market pricing clearly points to the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate policy unchanged in the short term, reflecting a period of observation in monetary policy. Interest rate path expectations have diverged significantly by the end of the year, with market bets on a rate hike dominating. This expectation structure directly reflects the market's deep concerns about inflation stickiness and economic resilience. Policymakers' stance of maintaining high interest rates is reshaping investor risk appetite and suppressing premature expectations of an easing cycle.