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A Super Central Bank Week: What's the Market Betting On? This week, central banks from the US, Europe, and Japan are all holding meetings: The probability of a Fed meeting in October is less than 10%, while the probability in December is nearly 80%. Bank of Japan: Highly likely to maintain the current 1.25% interest rate in October. ECB: Hold rates steady in October, with a final rate hike in December. October is basically a foregone conclusion. Therefore, a drop in BTC to around 80,000 will likely trigger a rebound. The market is truly focused on the midterm elections and the December rate hike.