分析师:考虑到美联储今年预计还将有两次降息,预计本轮牛市还有两次上涨机会
据CryptoQuant分析师Axel Adler Jr分析,牛市后期的问题在于投资者的风险偏好下降。数据显示,2024年3月和12月该指标曾突破1.9,但目前指标正在形成较低峰值,持币者开始积极抛售,给市场带来压力。尽管投资者仍在获利了结,但每次新的价格上涨带来的成本基础边际溢价越来越小。 分析师称,考虑到美联储今年预计将有两次降息,预计在本轮周期中还将出现两次上涨,之后卖压将超过需求,市场将进入调整阶段。(金色财经)
据CryptoQuant分析师Axel Adler Jr分析,牛市后期的问题在于投资者的风险偏好下降。数据显示,2024年3月和12月该指标曾突破1.9,但目前指标正在形成较低峰值,持币者开始积极抛售,给市场带来压力。尽管投资者仍在获利了结,但每次新的价格上涨带来的成本基础边际溢价越来越小。 分析师称,考虑到美联储今年预计将有两次降息,预计在本轮周期中还将出现两次上涨,之后卖压将超过需求,市场将进入调整阶段。(金色财经)
Binance announced the launch of the HODLer airdrop event, launching Towns (TOWNS) token, with an airdrop time of 08:00 on August 5, 2025 (UTC+8). matters needing attention: -Users need to complete account verification (KYC) and come from eligible jurisdictions to participate in HODLer airdrops. -TOWNS will be launched on Binance Alpha, but will no longer be displayed on Alpha after spot trading begins. -Users who use BNB Simple Earn asset collateral for Binance loans (flexible interest rates) are not eligible for HODLer airdrop rewards.
According to Foresight News, CoinShares has released its latest weekly report showing that digital asset investment product funds flowed out of $223 million last week, reversing the inflow trend of $883 million at the beginning of this week. This may be a response to the Federal Reserve's tough signals and stronger than expected US economic data. Bitcoin leads with an outflow of $404 million, but its inflow has remained strong since the beginning of the year, reaching $20 billion, reflecting its high sensitivity to monetary policy. Ethereum has seen its 15th consecutive week of capital inflows ($133 million), while XRP, Solana, and SEI have also attracted significant capital inflows.
CACEIS, the asset services division of Credit Agricole, has acquired a minority stake in French fintech company Kriptown to support the launch of blockchain exchange Lise. It is reported that Lise aims to simplify the equity financing and listing process for small and medium-sized enterprises and companies, becoming the first blockchain based tokenized exchange in Europe. The platform is currently awaiting approval for the DLT trading and settlement system under the EU pilot program. If approved, it will allow companies to directly issue, trade, and settle financial instruments on distributed ledgers, significantly reducing the time and cost of traditional IPOs. The first IPO is expected to be launched in 2025.
According to Golden Finance, Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist of Interactive Brokers, stated that Kugler had previously been absent from the latest FOMC meeting due to personal reasons, so I believe the credibility of his resignation statement is high. But this provides an opportunity for US President Trump to install super doves. Even more concerning is the dismissal of the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Despite the apparent problems with the institution and unprecedented large-scale modifications to the data, it is unprecedented for a president to dismiss officials simply because they dislike the data without truly determining the reasons, which is not a good sign. This raises questions about the credibility and fairness of the information. If data statisticians are constrained by the president's political whims, the authenticity of these data will be questioned.
According to Axel Adler Jr, an analyst at CryptoQuant, the problem in the later stages of a bull market is a decrease in investors' risk appetite. The data shows that the indicator broke through 1.9 in March and December 2024, but it is currently forming a low peak, and holders are actively selling, putting pressure on the market. Although investors are still taking profits, the marginal premium of cost base brought by each new price increase is getting smaller and smaller. Analysts say that considering that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, there are expected to be two more increases in this cycle, after which selling pressure will exceed demand and the market will enter a correction phase.