Polymarket predicts that the probability of ETH hitting $2500 in August will rise to 86%

The US unemployment rate data for October will be released at 21:30 tonight. BNP Paribas, Capital Economics, Danske Bank, High Frequency Economics, Barclays, JPMorgan Chase, Nomura Securities, and UBS Group predict a 4.1% growth rate. ABN AMRO, Morgan Stanley, ANZ, BMO, Berenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Jefferies Group, Citigroup, Commerzbank, Daiwa Capital, Goldman Sachs, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, HSBC, ING, Sumitomo Mitsui, Deutsche Bank, National Bank of Canada, Pansen Macro, Standard Chartered, Steifel, Spartan Capital, Allied Bank of Ireland, TD Securities, and Wells Fargo all predict 4.2%. Mizuho Securities and Westpac Bank forecast 4.3%, while Reuters expects 4.2%. AI Interpretation: As a core indicator of the non-farm payroll report, the unemployment rate directly determines the Federal Reserve's assessment of the degree of cooling in the labor market. Market divergences in predictions for this indicator reflect the current interplay between economic growth and employment resilience. The final performance of this data will directly revise market pricing in the Fed's monetary policy path. If the data remains within the current range, it will confirm that the labor market is in equilibrium, thus supporting the Fed's decision to maintain current interest rate levels.

The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% last week and acknowledged that inflation was high. The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates in December. Investment analyst Michael Claymer believes that if the October jobs report meets expectations and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, the market's assessment of the Fed's policy path will remain unchanged. If job growth exceeds forecasts, the unemployment rate falls, and wage growth is strong, investors will reassess the number of rate hikes and the end of the rate hike cycle. MarketWatch statistics show that since January 2025, non-farm payroll data has exceeded market expectations 11 times and fallen short of expectations 10 times, with the average deviation between actual data and forecasts reaching tens of thousands of jobs. AI Interpretation: The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates clarifies the tone of the current tightening cycle, and the non-farm payroll data directly determines the marginal adjustment space for subsequent monetary policy. Strong employment performance will force the market to revise its expectations for the end of interest rate hikes and reinforce the necessity of maintaining high interest rates in the long term. Labor market volatility directly influences the Fed's decision-making logic, and better-than-expected employment growth will completely eliminate any room for interest rate cuts in the short term. As a policy indicator, the core impact of this data lies in verifying inflation stickiness through employment resilience, thereby locking in the Fed's hawkish stance.

Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz purchased 760,000 Class A shares of the company through Galaxy Group Funding ECI U LLC for approximately $9.9 million, at an average price of approximately $12.98 per share. According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the purchase was made in two separate transactions: 528,800 shares (weighted average price $12.694) and 231,200 shares (weighted average price $13.632). Galaxy shares fell to around $13 on the Nasdaq on November 5th. Galaxy's board of directors approved an additional $200 million share repurchase program, bringing the company's total repurchases to 9.8 million shares as of the third-quarter earnings release date. Furthermore, Galaxy's adjusted EBITDA from its data center business reached $69 million in the third quarter, up from $11 million in the second quarter. (Source: TheEnergyMag)

[Brad Garlinghouse: Pro-crypto Candidates Win in Both Parties, Industry Will Continue to Grow in the US] Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that pro-crypto candidates won in both parties, the 67 million crypto-using Americans will not leave, and the new Congress should continue the mission of clear rules and building in the US. A report released on May 13 by the National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA) showed that approximately one-quarter of American adults hold crypto assets. Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty attributed the victory to the involvement of the super PAC Fairshake and grassroots organizations, and looks forward to working with both parties. Ripple previously invested an additional $25 million in Fairshake in November 2024. (Source: Bitcoin.com News)

In a report released on November 5, Goldman Sachs analysts Lena Thomas and Dan Struvevin lowered their year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650, and their year-end 2027 target price to $4,800 from $5,400. Goldman Sachs expects central banks to continue buying gold in large quantities, with concerns about the safety of foreign exchange reserves persisting, and declining US interest rates providing support for gold prices. Stephen Innes interprets this as follows: Central banks around the world continue to increase their gold holdings, but the Federal Reserve's continued restrictive monetary policy has weakened the purchasing willingness of private investors, especially speculative funds relying on leverage and options trading. In the gold market, leveraged funds are no longer willing to follow central banks in buying regardless of the costs.