The Chicago Federal Reserve forecasts the U.S. unemployment rate to be 4.19% in October, a slight increase from September.

The Chicago Federal Reserve's real-time unemployment rate forecasting model shows that the U.S. unemployment rate in October was 4.19%, a slight increase from the 4.18% unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in September. The model predicts that the probability of a decrease in the U.S. unemployment rate in October is 5 percentage points higher than the probability of an increase.