According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 79.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 20.5%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 12.4%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 70.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 17.3%. (Source: Caixin)
AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path reflects a high expectation of policy stability. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term is absolutely dominant, indicating that the market has fully digested the current tightening cycle of monetary policy. The rising expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of the year indicates that the market is re evaluating the game between inflationary pressures and economic resilience. This pricing structure directly suppresses the speculative sentiment of short-term interest rate cuts and strengthens the market consensus of a long-term high interest rate environment.
