According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 77.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 22.7%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 12.2%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 68.7%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 19.1%.
AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path shows a clear expectation of tightening, especially with bets on further interest rate hikes before the end of the year dominating. This pricing logic directly reflects the market's deep concerns about inflation stickiness and economic resilience, forcing investors to reassess the duration of the high interest rate environment. The current outcome of the interest rate futures market clearly points to the inevitability of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance in subsequent meetings. This expected adjustment will continue to suppress the valuation space of risk assets and strengthen the support of the US dollar index.
