CITIC Securities Research Report: The market's pricing power for US inflation is weakening, and the long-term US bond pricing anchor is shifting towards the growth/AI cycle

According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the US September CPI was 3.7% year-on-year and PPI was 6.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations. However, the long-term yield of US bonds showed a decline within 24 hours. After the release of CPI on October 14th, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds surged by about 13bp to 5.325% before giving up; After the PPI was announced on October 15th, it only rose by about 2.5bp in the 10-year period, fell in the 30-year period, and then fell back to around 5.048% in the 10-year period. The market's pricing power for inflation has weakened, and the long-term pricing anchor has shifted towards the "growth/AI cycle". The essence of its pricing "decline" is the tail risk of AI capital expenditure cycle downturn, rather than traditional demand decline. Currently, it is still a tentative pricing on the left side and has not yet formed a trend confirmation.