The market predicts a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

The market predicts a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 90.8%, and the probability of raising rates by 50 basis points is 9.2%. AI Interpretation: This data directly reflects the market's extreme pricing in the Fed's monetary policy path. The extremely high probability of interest rate hikes has completely sealed off any room for a policy shift in the short term. This consistent hawkish expectation will continue to suppress the performance of risk assets and push up the dollar index. The market has fully priced in the continuation of tightening policies, and financial conditions will remain extremely tight.