[Vitalik: SNARK is expected to achieve less than 10x computational cost overhead by the end of this decade] Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin shared his optimistic outlook on the long-term development of cryptography in a recent post. He believes that for general real-world computation, there is a 33% probability that SNARKs, Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), and Indistinguishability Obfuscation (iO) could achieve a cost multiplier close to '1+ε,' meaning that as computation scales sufficiently, the additional overhead introduced by cryptographic processing could approach zero relative to the original computational cost. He also estimated that the probability of all three technologies achieving less than 10x overhead is 60%, with the measurement criteria being the combined energy cost and amortized computational cost. At least one breakthrough has a significant chance of being realized by the end of this decade, with SNARKs being the most likely to achieve single-digit cost overhead.
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