GMX stated on the X platform that the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision at 2 PM ET on October 28th, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at 2:30 PM. The market expects approximately a 90% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 3.75% to 4.00% range in October, and approximately an 80% probability of a rate hike in December. Crude oil prices have fallen, energy-driven inflation continues, and gold prices are currently around $4000.
AI Interpretation: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as a core indicator of monetary policy, directly determines liquidity expectations in global capital markets. The current high market consensus on maintaining interest rates reflects policymakers' cautious approach in seeking a balance between inflation and economic growth. This highly consistent expectation anchors short-term interest rate trends, reducing the market's room for maneuver regarding policy shifts. As the decision announcement approaches, financial markets will enter a repricing phase of interest rate paths, and the persistence of a high-interest-rate environment will continue to suppress the valuation recovery of risky assets.
