The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged; non-farm payroll data becomes a key variable for the December interest rate path.

The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% last week and acknowledged that inflation was high. The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates in December. Investment analyst Michael Claymer believes that if the October jobs report meets expectations and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, the market's assessment of the Fed's policy path will remain unchanged. If job growth exceeds forecasts, the unemployment rate falls, and wage growth is strong, investors will reassess the number of rate hikes and the end of the rate hike cycle. MarketWatch statistics show that since January 2025, non-farm payroll data has exceeded market expectations 11 times and fallen short of expectations 10 times, with the average deviation between actual data and forecasts reaching tens of thousands of jobs. AI Interpretation: The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates clarifies the tone of the current tightening cycle, and the non-farm payroll data directly determines the marginal adjustment space for subsequent monetary policy. Strong employment performance will force the market to revise its expectations for the end of interest rate hikes and reinforce the necessity of maintaining high interest rates in the long term. Labor market volatility directly influences the Fed's decision-making logic, and better-than-expected employment growth will completely eliminate any room for interest rate cuts in the short term. As a policy indicator, the core impact of this data lies in verifying inflation stickiness through employment resilience, thereby locking in the Fed's hawkish stance.