The US October non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, with the market expecting an increase of 59,000 to 65,000 jobs.
The U.S. will release its October non-farm payroll data at 9:30 p.m. on Friday. The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by approximately 59,000 to 65,000 in October, a slight increase from the initial figure of 29,000 in September. The CME FedWatch Tool showed that traders' expectations for a further rate hike in December fell to 69.1% from 82.7% the previous day. AI Interpretation: This non-farm payroll data is a key indicator for measuring the supply and demand balance in the US labor market. Changes in employment directly determine the marginal adjustment space for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The downward revision of market expectations for interest rate hikes reflects investors' deep concerns about an economic slowdown. This data will be decisive evidence in determining whether the US economy will achieve a soft landing or face an increased risk of recession. The actual performance of the job market will directly reshape the market's pricing logic for the Fed's subsequent interest rate path.