Writing a weekly report has taken me so late again. Sometimes I really want to just give up; after all, the events of the week are so obvious. Is it really necessary to specifically organize a weekly report? However, every week at this time, even though I am reluctant, I still insist on writing it down. Laziness often finds a bunch of excuses, but as a way to organize my thoughts, that reason is enough to keep me going.
Today, there is still no new movement. Not only are we waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, but Trump is also waiting, and he even took a moment to criticize Powell during the wait. All the games of the third quarter will be revealed early Thursday morning. After that, it won't be too late to discuss other matters. Currently, based on various news, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is the highest. Nick has even published an article, so there’s almost no need to consider other possibilities.
The key point is the dot plot, especially the dot plots for 2025 and 2026, which can reveal whether Trump has the upper hand in this game or if Powell can maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve. But if a black swan event does occur, I can accept that too.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, today's turnover has actually decreased. Investors do not show signs of panic before the game; it should be that the rate cut in September is no longer in doubt. The market is generally buzzing with the idea of a 50 basis point cut, which has caused some FOMO in the risk markets. After all, looking at the trends in the U.S., both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 broke historical highs during the day, and $BTC is also very likely to return to $117,000 before the meeting.
At this point, guessing the outcome is actually not very meaningful. As I said yesterday, what our friends should be considering more is how to operate if the expected rate cut decision occurs, how to operate if it exceeds expectations, and what to do if a black swan event really happens. This is more useful than guessing the rate cut magnitude and the dot plot right now.
This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh
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