On the eve of Thanksgiving, Uweb, the largest digital asset education institution in Asia, organized a study tour group to New York, and I was fortunate to be invited to participate, gaining immense insights. New York is undoubtedly the center of global capitalism and finance, and it is now becoming the center of the crypto economy. Therefore, despite the tightly packed schedule over just one week, I still felt it was not enough. This trip to New York coincided with several significant events: the longest government shutdown in U.S. history had just ended, the AI industry faced widespread skepticism regarding its market valuation, leading to a phase of correction, and during our stay in New York, there was a sudden crash in the crypto asset market of over 10%. Thus, at this intersection of money and information on Wall Street, we were exposed to a wealth of information. There was much I could write about, but given the tightening of domestic policies on digital assets and the primary readership of this public account being in China, I will omit some embellishing details and focus solely on summarizing the viewpoints. Although the viewpoints are summarized by me, they originate from various experts and mentors, and I should ideally acknowledge them by name. However, due to the sensitivity of the current Chinese online public opinion, some names will be omitted to avoid causing unnecessary trouble for others. I hope everyone understands.
I have summarized a total of nine viewpoints, which will be published in two parts.
1. The U.S. economy is caught in a dilemma between stimulating growth and curbing inflation
The current U.S. attitude towards the crypto economy is primarily to "Americanize" it, so discussions about the crypto economy cannot be separated from an understanding of the overall U.S. economy.
During this study tour, we invited two economists to provide a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. economic situation, and their views were quite consistent. They both believe that the U.S. economy currently exhibits a structural contrast. From the overall data, economic growth appears strong, and inflation is stable, indicating a good state. However, under closer scrutiny, growth is almost entirely driven by AI investments, with severe structural inflation. Excluding AI-related sectors, the economy is close to zero growth. The "return of manufacturing" actively promoted by Trump can optimistically be said to be "still laying the groundwork," with no actual results seen yet. Although the overall CPI data looks good, inflation in the service sector is severe, especially with property insurance prices expected to surge in 2025, and issues like tipping, long criticized, have not improved but rather worsened. Additionally, this year's job market for graduates is particularly tough, so from the public's personal experience, there is no longer the sense of prosperity felt in the early part of Trump's first term. Economists describe the current U.S. economy as "K-shaped growth"—the sectors related to AI are rapidly developing, while the circumstances of the middle and lower classes continue to decline.
Americans are not like Chinese people. Chinese people do not care much about their own well-being; they can be excited about impressive macroeconomic data and passionately discuss abstract topics like whether China can "defeat the West" in technological competition, demonstrating a sense of selflessness. However, what we observed during our visit to New York showed that Americans, even the elites on Wall Street, are more concerned about their day-to-day lives rather than the question of winning or losing. Therefore, attractive numbers do not matter; Americans are actually quite vocal in their complaints. If this situation continues, the Republican Party is likely to lose at least one chamber in next year's midterm elections.
Economists are aware of this situation, but opinions on how to address it vary. Some believe that interest rates must not be lowered in December, while others argue that lowering rates to stimulate the economy should take priority. In one instance, I asserted that Powell would not compromise and therefore would not lower rates in the near term, but another seasoned financial expert believed that the Federal Reserve would buckle under pressure and definitely lower rates. Unexpectedly, our differing views were reconciled in an unforeseen way: reports emerged that Powell would retire four months early in January, and the new chair appointed by Trump would quickly push for rate cuts. This way, the tough-minded Chair Powell preserved his integrity, while the assertive President Trump achieved his goal, resulting in a win-win situation.
Thus, although the crypto asset market experienced a crash during our time in New York, leading to widespread lamentations about the arrival of a bear market, I remain bullish about the future. However, given the current situation in the U.S., once rates are lowered, inflation is likely to rise immediately. How long can this liquidity feast last?
2. AI is the sole driver of U.S. growth
The U.S. GDP grew by 4.1% in the third quarter, with 4.0% of that growth related to AI. The U.S. economy is almost entirely reliant on AI for growth. Moreover, in VC investments, there has emerged a trend of "no investment without AI." It is clear to anyone that this situation is unsustainable and should be viewed as an extreme case within the current AI boom, but it also reflects the role AI plays in the current U.S. economic growth.
Before our study tour in New York, the AI stock market experienced a downturn, with AI benchmark stock Nvidia dropping over 10% from its peak, and Oracle even falling by more than 30%. Therefore, on Wall Street, the bubble in AI investments is a hot topic. When I visited Silicon Valley in August, VCs there were largely in firm denial about the AI bubble theory. However, in November on Wall Street, opinions differed, reflecting the contrasting attitudes of innovative thinking versus financial thinking.
Most on Wall Street believe that the current investment in AI infrastructure in the U.S. is financially unhealthy, meaning that the money invested in AI data centers is not a worthwhile investment. Some pointed out that the impressive financial statements of companies like Nvidia ultimately rely on orders from companies like OpenAI, which promised $1.4 trillion in orders but could only generate less than $20 billion in revenue. Wall Street analysts calculated the numbers and found them unworkable.
But does this mean there is a bubble in AI? Even on Wall Street, opinions vary. Some believe there is a bubble financially because the entire AI industry's revenue is weak, making it difficult to even pay interest on investments. However, others are optimistic, believing that AI applications are rapidly unfolding and will soon provide a strong boost to U.S. economic growth. Some even argue that AI applications are driving rapid innovation in areas like small-scale nuclear power, hydrogen energy generation, aerospace technology, robotics, and 6G, potentially enabling the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 10% in the 2030s. If this is the case, current investments in the AI industry, even if they show short-term financial losses, are entirely worthwhile. After the investment phase, the market will automatically adjust prices, allowing investors to profit in the long run.
This perspective is not unfamiliar to Chinese people. China's high-speed rail, from a financial standpoint, has long been a massive loss, but many believe it has propelled the overall growth of China's economy and industrial level, making it worthwhile to endure some short-term losses. There are similar voices within the U.S. During our time in New York, Trump signed an executive order to launch the Genesis Mission, emulating the Manhattan Project of the past, using government resources to promote AI development, which reflects this line of thinking.
3. Although there is still debate, the trend of the U.S. embracing the crypto economy is irreversible
One important purpose of our trip to New York was to observe Wall Street's attitude towards the crypto economy. Over the past decade, Wall Street has generally been anti-crypto. Has their attitude changed after nearly a year of relentless promotion by the Trump administration?
From my observations, a shift is occurring, roughly at 10-20%.
First, if anyone claims that Wall Street is now wholeheartedly embracing the crypto economy, that would be misleading. Wall Street is still Wall Street; it has been built over hundreds of years, creating the world's most advanced, complete, and prosperous financial ecosystem, enjoying the wealth and power that comes with it. They are satisfied with the status quo and are unlikely to be as excited as tech geeks about a technology that claims to disrupt or at least reform the financial infrastructure centered around them. On Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase is a major representative of the anti-crypto movement. Unverified market rumors suggest that the crash in the crypto market on November 20 was related to JPMorgan's targeting of MicroStrategy. Regardless of the reliability of this claim, there remains a strong stubborn force on Wall Street that refuses to accept and opposes crypto, which is undeniable.
However, a change is happening. Wall Street traders and fund managers have long been highly attentive to and involved in the crypto market, but the key is the attitude of institutions. Wall Street institutions are not a monolith; from banks to asset management, from investment banks to brokerages, from exchanges to hedge funds, their different ecological niches determine their perspectives on crypto.
At least from the viewpoint of some institutions, blockchain technology can help them solve two problems:
First, blockchain can enable financial businesses to operate globally. Especially in the context of de-globalization, blockchain can penetrate the regulatory barriers of countries with poor governance, allowing Wall Street to continue expanding its business. In this sense, the higher the financial barriers in other countries and the more blocked traditional channels are, the more attractive on-chain finance becomes to Wall Street.
Second, attracting young people. In recent years, one issue that has caused Wall Street considerable headaches is that young people who grew up in the internet age are increasingly impatient with Wall Street's outdated and cumbersome service models, preferring to trade cryptocurrencies instead. If financial services can be built on blockchain, it could attract young people back.
Therefore, more and more institutions on Wall Street are beginning to consider blockchain, with RWA and DeFi currently being their focal points. A senior investment banking expert on Wall Street told me that the Jewish community on Wall Street is already "itching to get started," which is an important signal that cannot be ignored.
However, if we only look at Wall Street, I do not believe the situation has reached an irreversible stage. If we imagine that the next U.S. government were to comprehensively suppress the crypto economy as during the Biden administration, would Wall Street return to square one? At least for now, Wall Street has not invested much in crypto, so it could easily backtrack.
However, if we broaden our perspective to the U.S. as a whole, we can conclude that the process of the U.S. embracing the crypto economy is irreversible.
During this study tour, we encountered a prominent figure from a Democratic family foundation, who told us that Democratic leaders have recognized that crypto is the choice of young people. During the Biden administration, in an effort to appease the stubborn forces on Wall Street, the Democratic Party ruthlessly suppressed the crypto economy, alienating young voters, which is an important reason for the Democratic Party's potential defeat in the 2024 elections. In today's U.S. politics, the political inclinations of middle-aged and older voters are already established, making it crucial for both parties to win over young voters. Therefore, even if the next Democratic administration takes office, it is unlikely to reverse its stance on crypto policy. She also revealed that this family foundation has made significant allocations to crypto assets.
At the same time, some economists and central bankers we spoke with also expressed support for the crypto economy from another perspective. One economist told us that according to their research, since the passage of the Stablecoin Act in July 2025, the usage rate of the dollar globally has increased, indicating that stablecoins have indeed strengthened the dollar's position as expected. This serves as a strong incentive for congressional legislators, and thus Congress is actively pushing for the passage of the Market Structure Act.
In summary, my viewpoint is that the consensus among U.S. policymakers to embrace the crypto economy is strengthening and expanding, and under these circumstances, Wall Street will also move forward in line with the trend.
4. The scenarios for stablecoin payments are primarily in the B-end, not the C-end
I remember that before the passage of the Stablecoin Act in July this year, there was a widespread optimistic expectation within the crypto community. Including myself, many had envisioned that once the stablecoin legislation was enacted, dozens or even hundreds of major U.S. companies would issue dollar stablecoins, leading ordinary consumers to begin using stablecoins in large numbers. Particularly, leading internet companies could enhance their network economic effects by issuing stablecoins, which seemed like a very reasonable expectation.
But none of this has happened, at least not yet. Although the issuance of stablecoins is steadily increasing, there is no significant trend of expansion into e-commerce or offline application scenarios. Why is that?
We discussed this with some senior experts in the banking and internet payment industries in New York and reached a shocking conclusion: for a considerable time, the real-world payment scenarios for stablecoins will be concentrated on the B-end, primarily in payments between institutions, rather than the C-end.
The reason this conclusion is shocking is that within the crypto industry, a large number of entrepreneurs and researchers firmly believe that the advantages of stablecoins—instant global transactions, integrated payment and settlement, and ultra-low fees—provide an overwhelming competitive edge over traditional banking and internet transfers. Therefore, once stablecoins are promoted, they will quickly capture the market in retail and e-commerce C-end daily payment scenarios. Many investment institutions and entrepreneurs have invested significant resources in stablecoin payment tools, hoping to seize the opportunity. However, over the past few months, some stablecoin payment products that are technically and cost-effective have encountered enormous resistance in promotion, or have simply been unable to gain traction.
A leading expert in global electronic and internet payments analyzed the reasons behind this. He explained that the total scale of global stablecoin payments in 2024 is projected to be $46 trillion, which sounds substantial, but $37 trillion of that is actually programmatic trading by robots on-chain and on exchanges. Among the remaining $9 trillion, the vast majority still occurs in on-chain asset trading and transfer, with real payment scenarios being almost negligible. Why? Because stablecoins do not have an advantage in everyday payments compared to credit cards and internet payments.
This expert stated that proponents of stablecoin payments mistakenly believe that a fee advantage of just 1% to 3% can defeat traditional electronic payments, which is a complete arrogance and illusion. The traditional electronic payment system has established a complete trust loop and ecosystem, possessing strong network effect advantages, and offers a better user experience than the currently mainstream stablecoin payment tools. Whether it’s users of WeChat and Alipay in China or VISA users in the U.S., the payment experience is already quite perfect. In a sense, the fees charged by VISA are a premium for its network effect. It is difficult for stablecoins to penetrate this moat.
So where are the opportunities for stablecoins? This expert believes that the advantage of stablecoins lies not in speed and low cost, but in the programmability afforded by smart contracts. By programming stablecoins through smart contracts, structured and conditional payments can be achieved, such as proportionally paying multiple recipients upon receipt of funds, or implementing third-party guaranteed payments similar to Alipay. Such structured payments based on contractual conditions are extremely common in inter-institutional payments, and this is where stablecoins can truly shine.
Therefore, he believes that the current direction of innovation and entrepreneurship in the stablecoin industry has "gone off track," neglecting its true advantages and the real needs of users while challenging an opponent it has no chance against, leading to an inevitably pessimistic outcome. The stablecoin industry should immediately focus on B-end scenarios and leverage the advantages of smart contracts, as this represents the dimensional advantage of stablecoins over traditional payments.
This viewpoint was enlightening for me because, over the past few years, we have been collaborating with the Monetary Authority of Singapore on experiments in stablecoin cross-border trade payments, discovering that all scenarios involve business-to-business and institution-to-institution interactions, with the anticipated C2C scenarios not materializing. This led me to think that if the main scenario for stablecoin payments is B2B, then enterprise-level wallets and enterprise-level account management systems have become a weak link. This seems to be where innovation should be focused.
5. Wall Street's confidence is seizing the dominance of crypto finance, but two orders will coexist and interact for a long time
If you are a Chinese Twitter user overseas, it won't take long to observe the overseas Chinese crypto community and you will get the impression that the center of the crypto economy is in Dubai and Singapore. However, this impression may be misleading, as the focus of the crypto world is shifting to New York.
During our week in New York, almost all the Wall Street experts we encountered expressed the same judgment: the crypto economy is transitioning from the era of retail investors to the era of institutions. In their view, this shift is both an inevitable law of market development and a signal of the re-emergence of American institutional power. Once we enter the institutional era, the global center of the crypto economy will inevitably return to the U.S., especially New York and Miami. The former is the center of capital, regulation, and compliance, while the latter, with its open tax system, innovative policies, and vibrant entrepreneurial atmosphere, has become the most active testing ground for the integration of crypto and the real economy. Their reasoning is simple: Wall Street has advantages in capital scale, institutional strength, and talent, while the overall size of the crypto world is still too small; the entire industry is not even as large as a single stock on Wall Street. In the face of a genuine capital flood and regulatory restructuring, the so-called decentralization of "decentralized finance" may only be relative.
In the eyes of these experts, the ongoing compliance system construction in the U.S.—whether it be the Stablecoin Act, the Market Structure Act, or future regulations regarding crypto securities, custody, and trading—does not primarily aim to regulate retail investors or stifle innovation, but rather to issue a "license for the western development" to Wall Street. Once the institutional framework is established, institutional capital can enter on a large scale under legal protection, gaining control over pricing, discourse, and liquidity. From that moment on, the rules, benchmarks, and even the ecological landscape of the crypto market will be reshaped, with Wall Street at the core of this transformation.
However, this does not mean that Asia's offshore crypto ecosystem will disappear. On the contrary, Dubai, Singapore, and Hong Kong will continue to be important pillars of global crypto innovation. They offer the flexibility brought by regulatory gray areas, cultural inclusivity, and entrepreneurial spirit—elements that the U.S. system cannot fully replace. Therefore, the future global crypto landscape will present a state of "dual systems coexisting." New York represents the institutionalized, financialized, and dollarized mainstream onshore crypto economic ecosystem, while the Asian offshore ecosystem represents an alternative system of openness, experimentation, and cross-border collaboration. The two will interact for a long time, but with clear distinctions in their roles.
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