😂 The United States and Iran are still in a tug of war, but I seem to have been right yesterday; the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is difficult for both countries. Therefore, resolving the Strait of Hormuz should be the first step in a peace agreement between the two countries. For the United States, the long-term maintenance of WTI above 100 dollars until 2026 makes it almost impossible to cut interest rates, let alone that of Walsh; even Trump's son probably couldn't manage it.
It is the same for Iran. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, the United States will block Iran's oil exports, which is equivalent to strangling Iran's economic lifeline. Although continuing the war won't be easy for the United States, Iran is likely to suffer more seriously. If a ceasefire is a shared need for both sides, then the Strait of Hormuz is the throat of both economies.
Yesterday I was also considering that if Iran makes the Strait of Hormuz a prerequisite for negotiation, what leverage would they have when it comes to nuclear facilities? Now that I think about it, after all, it's right at Iran's doorstep; if it doesn't work, they can just continue the blockade, but that is certainly not the right thing to do. Can the Malacca and Red Seas also start charging fees?
However, although they are still quarreling, the drop in oil prices indicates that the market still sees opportunities for negotiation to reach an agreement. If it can stabilize below 90 dollars this week, then U.S. inflation will be simpler in the future.
Looking back at Bitcoin data, the data on the surface is good, but unfortunately, I have been emphasizing that the good data is because there has been good progress between the United States and Iran. Things are moving towards peaceful resolution, not because of changes in $BTC itself. Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market has not undergone structural changes and can still only be considered an appendage of U.S. stocks. When the U.S. stock market environment and expectations rise, at the very least, Bitcoin won't be too bad.
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