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AI Contract-Driven Pricing: The Core Logic of the Valuation Competition in Mining Company Transformation

CN
BBX
12 days ago

Introduction: What Investors Want Is Not Quarterly Reports, But Contracts

On May 6, Hut 8 and Core Scientific provided the clearest answer to a question with their Q1 financial reports on the same day: In the race for AI transformation in the mining industry, what determines stock price? It's not revenue growth (Core Scientific also saw a year-on-year increase of 45%), nor gross margin, but—are there new contracts? Hut 8 announced contracts worth $9.8 billion, rising 30%. Core Scientific did not, dropping 9%.


1. Hut 8: $16.8 Billion Contract Pipeline, Pricing Logic Switch Completed

The $9.8 billion lease with Beacon Point combined with the $7 billion from River Bend allows Hut 8 to secure a total of $16.8 billion in long-term contract revenue across its two major AI campuses. For the capital markets, this means Hut 8's valuation can start moving away from the "BTC price proxy" framework and align more with the logic of data center REITs. The simultaneous completion of a $3.25 billion investment-grade non-recourse project financing is a formal endorsement of this logic by the institutional credit system. 3,300 BTC were released from collateral, enhancing the company's financial flexibility when BTC prices rise.


2. Core Scientific: Strong Execution, But The Market Wants The Next Contract

Core Scientific's Q1 data was actually very good: Revenue of $115.2 million exceeded expectations, managed service revenue rose from $8.6 million to $77.5 million, and the CoreWeave contract is progressing as planned. The significantly lower EPS was mainly due to the depreciation of capital expenditures during the construction phase and financing interest, not operational deterioration. The issue lies in "no new news"—when peers announced new contracts of $9.8 billion and $11.4 billion in the same week, Core Scientific had no new contract disclosures, which the market interpreted as a lack of pipeline transparency; the 9% drop directly reflects this expectation gap.


The +30% increase of Hut 8 and the -9% decrease of Core Scientific together define the underlying rules of the valuation competition for AI transformation in mining companies by 2026: Quarterly report numbers are the passing mark, new contracts are the bonus. This rule applies equally to TeraWulf (May 8) and other pending reporting mining companies.



Data Source: https://bbx.com/ Cryptocurrency concept stock information repository, compiled based on yesterday's announcements from global listed companies and SEC/TSE disclosure documents.

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