Their winning rate on Polymarket is as high as 98%.
Written by: Maher, Foresight News
On May 18, Bubblemaps founder Nicolas Vaiman and investigation director Deebs (a former U.S. military officer whose real name is withheld for security reasons) disclosed to the public: they found nine highly correlated anonymous accounts on Polymarket, which collectively earned over $2.4 million from U.S. military operation-related prediction markets, with a winning rate as high as 98%.
Bubblemaps detailed their analysis of these accounts on Twitter, noting they mostly bet on military events related to a U.S.-Iran conflict in 2026, with eerily precise timing—often placing bets a few days before key operations, and preferring low-odds long-term options.
This is not just simple "good luck." Bubblemaps visualized the trades in the Polymarket market for "U.S. strikes Iran for the first time before February 28," and discovered a massive pink cluster that had not previously been mentioned on Platform X.
Upon further tracking, they connected the initial four accounts with another five through a timeline, trading scale, and flow of funds, showing clear links between them. The funding paths of the nine accounts were highly consistent: funds transferred through centralized exchanges into a shared wallet network in a very short time, suspected of using professional services to hide traces.
Four core accounts each earned $400,000
On the morning of February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale joint attack codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" and "Lion's Roar." The U.S.-Israeli forces carried out nearly 900 strikes on Iran within 12 hour
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