The technical signal is approaching a golden cross; Bitcoin may outperform gold in the second half of the year.
Written by: that1618guy, Delphi Digital Analyst
Compiled by: Chopper, Foresight News
Three months ago, I published an article titled “Bitcoin vs Gold: Positioning for the Next Relative Cycle,” with a very clear core viewpoint: under the analysis framework of the weekly 9/21 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the Bitcoin/gold ratio had fallen to the second largest historical retracement range, and from a data perspective, it was already close to the bottom. (Note: The weekly 9/21 EMA is a common trend determination and turning point signal combination used by trend traders.)
This judgment has now been validated. The ratio has rebounded about 46% from the February low, gold has fallen 18% from its historical high of $5,589, while Bitcoin has steadily risen from the $65,000 range to around $80,000. The core confirmation signal, the weekly 9/21 EMA bullish golden cross, is expected to officially form in the first week of June. Historically, after a deep death cross ends and a golden cross appears, the ensuing ratio increases have reached 148%, 641%, and 148% respectively.
However, the macro market environment has undergone tremendous changes. The current inflation rate is 3.8%, the expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has completely evaporated, the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and Kevin Warsh officially took office as Federal Reserve Chairman on May 13. The market dynamics in the second half of 2026 are much more complex than in February, but the overall trend of Bitcoin strengthening against gold has not changed.
This article will review the previous predictions of the Bitcoin/gold ratio trend, revisit the landing situation of gold and macro market viewpoints in the “2026 Market Outlook,” and update the overall judgment framework for the second half of the year.
The rebound of the Bitcoin/gold ratio is underway
At the end of February when the article was published, the Bitcoin/gold ratio was only maintained in the range of 12.5 to 13, which was at an extremely low historical level; at that time, the Bitcoin price was around $65,000, and gold was quoted at $5,100 after experiencing a surge.
Now the ratio has risen to 17.6, significantly increasing from the low point. This round of ratio rebound is completely dominated by the first type of market condition: Bitcoin did not usher in a violent surge but achieved relative strength through the pullback in gold prices. This is also the trend I mentioned in my previous article, which is most easily overlooked by the market. Few in the market realized that Bitcoin has recently outperformed gold due to the weakening of gold, which has indeed been the real market condition since mid-February.
The retracement from the high point of October 2025 has narrowed from about 60% to 46%. In historical terms, it remains in a deep retracement range but has already moved away from the extreme low point, decreasing from the second largest historical drawdown to a moderate retracement level.
Looking back at the previous eight rounds of decline, only the 2018 bear market (down 63%) and
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