On the evening of June 5th at 8:30 PM, the U.S. Labor Statistics released the latest non-farm payroll data, showing that the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the U.S. rose by 172,000 in May, exceeding the expected 85,000. The unemployment rate in the U.S. stood at 4.3% in May, remaining stable for the second consecutive month, in line with market expectations. As a result, Bitcoin experienced severe volatility, briefly falling below the $60,000 mark to a low of $59,087, while Ethereum also saw a significant drop, with prices falling below the $1,600 level to a low of $1,504.
At the same time, the U.S. interest rate futures market significantly increased its bets on the Federal Reserve raising rates at its December meeting. The previously expected probability of the Fed raising rates in December was 48%, but after the release of this non-farm data, the probability rose to 65%. For the rate meeting in June, the market generally believes the Fed will keep rates unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75%. The stronger-than-expected employment data indicates that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for a rate cut in the short term, while also strengthening investors' judgments that the Fed may resume rate hikes in response to inflationary pressures.
However, on Monday morning, Bitcoin surged back from the brink, hitting a recent high of $64,234 this morning, while Ethereum also rebounded, rising from a 24-hour low of $1,580 to a high of $1,721, leading the market with a gain of 6.64%. Both currencies staged a comeback from the oversold territory after the crash.
Although prices have rebounded, market sentiment remains pessimistic, with today's fear and greed index reporting 8, indicating that sentiment has not improved but rather declined. This suggests that the recent surge lacks strong confidence support, with most people choosing to observe rather than chase the market. Whether the crypto market can stabilize and rebound in such a harsh macro environment will require close attention to the pressure test from Wednesday's CPI data.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
From the four-hour level, the expert believes that Bitcoin is currently in a stage of technical rebound after an oversold condition, but the overall trend is still being pressured by bears. The rebound seems more like patching up rather than a real directional reversal. Let’s not rush in, we need to observe calmly.
In terms of MACD, the dual lines have formed a golden cross at a low point, and the green bearish energy bars are getting shorter and slowly turning red, indicating that some short-term funds are entering the market to buy the dip, and the strength of the bears has eased a bit. However, the DIF line is still hovering below the zero axis, which means that the medium-term bearish foundation has not changed, and the rebound space is limited, so don't expect a sudden surge.
The KDJ three lines quickly climbed up from the oversold area, with the J value once soaring above 70, but now it seems to be turning back down. This indicates that the short-term rebound strength has already been released significantly, and if it wants to continue climbing, it needs to see whether the trading volume can keep up; otherwise, it may very likely fall back after a peak.
Regarding the BOLL indicator, prices rebounded consecutively after reaching a low near $59,087 and are back around the middle line. The lower line is starting to narrow upwards, indicating that the bearish trend has weakened a bit. However, the upper BOLL middle line and the MA moving averages are clustered together, creating a resistance zone between $63,500 to $64,500. If this cannot be broken, the market may revisit the support level.
As for the Fibonacci retracement levels, the current drop from a high of $82,435 to a low of $59,087 has a 23.6% position at $64,575, 38.2% at $67,970, and 50% at $70,715. Currently, the price is fluctuating just below the 23.6% resistance level, indicating that the market is testing the first key resistance. If it can stabilize above $64,575, it may then rebound towards around $68,000; if it fails to break through $64,575, it may revisit $62,000 or even $60,000 to confirm support.
In terms of future market judgments, the expert feels that it is currently in a weak repair phase after a sharp drop. The short-term rebound is still continuing, but the overall direction is still bearish. Keep an eye on the $64,575 resistance level and the strong resistance at $68,000 above, while below watch for the short-term support at $62,000, the $60,000 round number, and the defense at the previous low of $59,087.
In terms of operations, the expert's personal view is that as long as the price does not stabilize above $68,000, the rebound should still be treated as a bearish repair. Short-term attention should be paid to whether it can break through near $64,500; if it breaks, the focus shifts to $68,000, but if it fails to do so, be alert for a second dip. Overall, maintaining a high short strategy for the rebound seems more prudent; do not chase the rise, but wait for a pullback to find opportunities.
Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it's better to give you the correct mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than just giving them fish; the latter earns a moment, while the former allows one to earn for a lifetime!
Writing time: (2026-05-27, 23:10)
(Note - Expert Addresses Cryptocurrency) Disclaimer: The online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investing involves risk; proceed with caution!
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