This week has been quite exhausting, with three major events occurring. First is the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran. Although it has been a very uncomfortable situation, having reached this point, regardless of whether the peace agreement favors one side, at least we can see some normal progress. Most importantly, the Strait of Hormuz has partially resumed traffic, although it is still far from pre-war conditions. But it is indeed a good development.
At least the WTI price has returned to around $70, only $5 away from the pre-war price of $65. This means that as long as WTI does not continue to rise, the inflation issue driven by rising oil prices in the U.S. can be resolved. This is also the second major event of the week, concerning the core PCE. Fortunately, the rise in core inflation was within market expectations, and the ceasefire will lower the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
The third event is Micron's earnings report, which performed very well. However, after the earnings report, both AI and tech stocks saw a certain decline. Coincidentally, I have been researching this situation and am preparing to write a dedicated tweet about it, which I should be able to post tomorrow morning. Currently, there has indeed been a large inflow of funds into tech stocks in the U.S. market.
Looking back at Bitcoin, it has consistently been said that bitcoin:native has decent purchasing power at $60,000, and the facts have proven to be quite good. After breaking through $60,000 several times, it is still fluctuating around this level. Although the ETF represents a large number of traditional investors panicking and exiting, there are still native investors buying Bitcoin in the spot market.
Next week, I need to closely examine Bitcoin data. Over the past week, I have basically been focusing on $MSTR and its preferred shares. MSTR and Bitcoin really have a love-hate relationship. However, if MSTR fails to pursue the strategic reserve path, it might not have Bitcoin strategic reserves in the future.
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