Recently, HTX Research, the research department of Huobi HTX, released the latest report titled "AI Bubble, Liquidity Black Hole, and Crypto Market Repricing: 2026 Mid-Year Macro and Risk Asset Correlation Study", analyzing how the AI investment super cycle reshapes the distribution pattern of global liquidity, thereby altering the correlation structure between Bitcoin and risk assets. Rather than judging whether AI will crash, this report focuses on how global capital migrates between AI, US stocks, bonds, energy, and crypto.
The Coexistence of Real Technological Revolution and Financial Bubbles
HTX Research points out that this AI cycle is not entirely the same as the Internet bubble of 2000. Large models have indeed improved efficiency in scenarios such as coding, content, customer service, and data analysis, and cloud vendors, model companies, and hardware supply chains have real income. However, a real technological revolution does not equate to asset prices being forever reasonable; historically, the most dangerous bubbles are often built on the excessive financialization, overcapitalization, and overly optimistic pricing of real technology.
The core risk of the AI market has shifted from "Is the technology real?" to "Are capital returns sufficient to support current input?" After 2024, global AI data center capital expenditures are accelerating upward, with large cloud vendors, model companies, data center developers, private credit funds, and the bond market participating together, rapidly pushing up the financing scale for AI infrastructure. AI is transforming from a growth narrative in the stock market to a balance sheet engineering supported by the bond market, private credit market, and energy market.
"Liquidity Black Hole": Why Crypto Has Not Fully Benefited from This Round of Easing
According to traditional logic, M2 expansion, fiscal deficits, expectations of monetary easing, and increasing risk appetite usually drive Bitcoin and crypto assets to strengthen. However, from the end of 2024 to mid-2026, a considerable portion of the new dollar liquidity has been absorbed by the AI industry chain: stock investors are buying AI equity assets, bond investors are purchasing AI-related credit assets, private equity funds are participating in data center financing, and banks and non-bank institutions are lending to tech giants and data center projects.
AI CapEx has thus become a "liquidity black hole" for global risk capital, and this change has altered the pricing logic of Bitcoin over the past decade. Bitcoin was originally mainly related to dollar liquidity, real interest rates, risk appetite, and regulatory cycles, but by 2026, it must face a new variable: whether AI continues to absorb global marginal risk capital. This also explains why, despite the macro liquidity not being tight, the dominance of incremental funds in the crypto market remains suppressed.
Research Framework for the Second Half of 2026: A Multidimensional Monitoring System Composed of Six Categories of Indicators
The methodological value of the report is concentrated in the research framework for the second half of 2026. In the face of changes in the correlation between the AI bubble and the crypto market, a single indicator cannot determine market direction; HTX Research provides a set of multidimensional monitoring systems that observe macro, AI, credit, stocks, crypto, and political risks together, covering six categories of indicators.
Two categories of indicators are particularly crucial. The first category is energy and inflation. The foundation of AI is electricity, and a continuous rise in energy prices will reprice the training and reasoning costs of AI while compressing the gross profits of model companies and the CapEx returns of cloud vendors; meanwhile, oil prices directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy space through inflation. For the crypto market, the most favorable environment usually occurs when "inflation falls + liquidity eases + risk appetite recovers" simultaneously, but in mid-2026, it is clear that this state has not yet been reached. Brent, WTI, natural gas, the grid load in concentrated data center areas, as well as CPI, PCE, and inflation expectations are all signals that need to be continuously tracked.
The second category, which is often underestimated yet potentially the most important, includes AI credit financing indicators. The bursting of the AI bubble may not first occur in stock prices but could first happen in the credit market. The scale of bond issuance by tech giants, credit spreads, the pricing of data center ABS/CMBS, private credit fundraising, bank loan standards, and cases of project financing failures together form this most vigilant warning line. Once the credit market shifts from "willing to finance indefinitely" to "requiring cash flow proof," the pace of AI CapEx expansion will be suppressed and transmitted to the crypto market through risk appetite.
The other four categories of indicators each have their focus: AI CapEx and order indicators, which pay attention to whether there is language indicating "controlling the pace" in tech giants' capital expenditure guidance; massive IPO and unlock schedules, which observe whether companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are accepted by the public market after listing; political and regulatory indicators, which track policy changes regarding AI data centers and electricity prices in swing states; and internal liquidity in the crypto market, which assesses whether crypto is passively enduring external risks or is beginning to be viewed as an alternative allocation after the clearing of the AI bubble through indicators such as net inflow of BTC and ETH ETFs, stablecoin supply, and on-chain activity.
Three Scenarios and Longer-Term Judgments
Based on the above framework, HTX Research has deduced three scenarios for the second half of the year: AI continues to expand while crypto remains suppressed; AI moderately corrects, and crypto experiences short-term pressure before differentiation; and AI bubble bursts rapidly, triggering credit contraction. In the third scenario, the crypto market may struggle to rise independently in the short term, but following policy rescue and monetary re-easing, Bitcoin may stabilize first, becoming one of the most resilient assets in the next liquidity repair cycle.
In the longer term, AI is reshaping the flow of global liquidity, while the crypto market is in the process of rediscovering pricing power. The truly important intersection between the two may lie in the combination of "AI × Crypto Financial Infrastructure": stablecoins becoming the payment layer for AI Agents, on-chain markets becoming the trading layer for AI assets, and exchanges becoming the unified entry point for global risk assets. Huobi HTX is also exploring this direction through its self-developed AINFT products, integrating mainstream large model capabilities into the platform ecosystem.
HTX Research believes that the key at this stage is to identify changes in capital flows. AI may continue to rise, but it is no longer a risk-free growth story; the crypto market will still fluctuate, but is no longer an isolated high-volatility asset. What will truly determine market direction in the second half of the year will be whether AI CapEx can continue to receive financing, whether energy prices can stabilize, and whether Bitcoin can regain marginal pricing power over global liquidity.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research department of Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of fields such as cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, and for writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting wise decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research always stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry ideas and promoting a deep understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics. Visit us.
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