After the US stock market closed this morning, cryptocurrency-related stocks collectively surged. Circle (CRCL) rose by 6.24%, Bitmine increased by 8.29%, but Strategy (MSTR) remained virtually unchanged due to new news of "selling coins."
Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself performed impressively——soaring from around $62,000, it briefly approached the $65,000 mark.
The person responsible for this widespread surge in cryptocurrency concepts is none other than the US president, Trump, who has repeatedly influenced the market with his statements.
1. A Surge Triggered by a Sentence
The cause of the situation is quite simple.
With the recent official launch of "Trump Accounts," discussions about a long bull market in US stocks have reignited. When a reporter asked whether "Trump Accounts might include Bitcoin in the future," Trump's response was:
"It might happen."
Just this vague statement, without any specific policy commitment, was enough to cause Bitcoin markets and US cryptocurrency concept stocks to soar instantly. This reflects the direct impact of Trump's public statements on market sentiment—without the need for specific policies to take effect, just one declaration can trigger a market repricing. BTC rapidly rose from about $62,000 to nearly $65,000, with cryptocurrency concept stocks rising in tandem. The market is extremely sensitive to any signals related to "officially recognized cryptocurrencies," and Trump is the one who knows best how to press this button.
But while the rise is certainly pleasing, it's worth asking: how long can this market driven by statements be sustained?
2. On-chain Data Shows: The Money Hasn't Arrived
While the rise is indeed gratifying, we should also observe whether there is real capital inflow. The reality is: the president's statements have not yet translated into real capital.
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's capital flow over the past 30 days remains in a net outflow state. Although market sentiment has warmed due to Trump's statements, in reality, capital has not entered on a large scale. The price rise is more driven by the reallocation of on-site funds and short covering, rather than new long-term capital entering at low levels.
This is an important distinction. Price increases driven by capital inflows are usually more sustainable and healthier; increases driven by sentiment and presidential statements tend to rise quickly and fall just as fast. The current situation appears to be closer to the latter.
3. Four-Year Cycle Law: How Far Is the Signal for the Bear Bottom?
In addition to the lack of on-chain funds, another indicator to be cautious about is the MVRV ratio.
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is one of the most commonly used cycle judgment tools in the cryptocurrency space. In simple terms, it measures how much the current market price of Bitcoin is compared to its "realized value" (the average price when all Bitcoins last moved). When the MVRV drops below 1, it means the overall market price of Bitcoin has fallen below its average cost base—indicating entry into the "undervalued" territory. Historically, every major bear market bottom for Bitcoin has seen the MVRV drop below 1.
Just last Tuesday, Bitcoin's MVRV briefly dropped to around 1.1, the lowest point of this year. This means the market is very close to the cycle bottom range but has not yet truly "broken 1". With the recent price rebound, the MVRV has risen back to around 1.2.
From the perspective of cycle laws, whether the current price rebound is a technical recovery from a bear market bottom or the beginning of a trend reversal cannot yet be concluded. If the MVRV dips again and breaks below 1, historical patterns show this typically corresponds to a clearer cycle bottom signal; however, as of now, this signal has not appeared.
4. Institutionalization of Statements: More Like an Alarm in the Short Term
Finally, let's discuss a deeper issue—Trump's "statement-driven market" is shifting from a personal behavior into a institutionalized market force.
The launch of "Trump Accounts" marks the first time the White House has established a direct connection with a public policy tool that explicitly influences US stock prices. This account ties the US government, newborn benefits, the S&P 500 Index, and the entire US stock market together. Now, Trump has added hints about cryptocurrency on this foundation.
What does this mean? It means that the impact of high-level statements on market pricing is becoming more normalized. The president's words can directly affect the pricing of US stocks and cryptocurrencies, and he is precisely someone who understands this deeply and enjoys it.
For retail investors, this doesn't necessarily mean it's a "signal to follow the president in buying stocks/coins and making money." On the contrary, this is more like a signal that requires a high level of vigilance—
in a mechanism where someone else is responsible for pushing up prices while you are responsible for catching the falling knife, you need to think carefully about whether you are a shareholder or just the fuel providing liquidity to others.
Short-term statements can create brief euphoria, but cannot replace the repair of fundamentals and real capital inflows. When the tide goes out, those who chased in at highs often find themselves the ones buying into someone else's profits.
5. In Conclusion
Trump's statement of "It might happen" brought BTC close to $65,000 overnight. This type of market is thrilling, but also dangerous.
Taking into account on-chain data, cycle indicators, and the trend of institutionalized impacts of statements on the market, uncertainty still exists in the current market.
For investors looking to participate in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency concept stock trading, the BIT platform offers a genuine trading channel covering cryptocurrencies like BTC and cryptocurrency concept stocks such as CRCL and MSTR. You can make instant deposits 24/7 through stablecoins to execute trades promptly during market fluctuations. However, no matter what tools you use for trading, remember one principle: in a market where others are responsible for moving prices, do not easily become someone else's liquidity.
Disclaimer
This article is a submission from a contributing author, and the market observations, data analysis, and judgments contained within represent the author's personal views, not those of the BIT platform. They do not constitute any investment advice or offer. BIT makes no explicit or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content in this article; the prices and data mentioned were as of the time of publication and may become invalid due to market fluctuations. Cryptocurrencies and related securities are highly volatile assets, and investments carry the risk of principal loss, with past performance not indicative of future results. Investors should independently assess whether to participate in trading and consult an independent professional advisor if necessary.
Disclaimer: This article represents only the personal views of the author and does not represent the position and views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone. Any disputes between users and authors are unrelated to this platform. If the articles or images on the webpage involve infringement, please provide relevant proof of rights and identity documents and send an email to support@aicoin.com. The relevant staff of this platform will conduct an investigation.