1. Today's Core News Summary
1. Macro Geopolitics: Rising Oil Prices Suppress Risk Appetite
The U.S.-Iran military conflict escalated over the weekend, with Brent crude oil jumping 3% to over $90 per barrel, reaching a new high since mid-June. Concerns about market inflation have resurfaced, and the U.S. dollar index has strengthened. The U.S. stock market semiconductor index has entered a technical bear market, and global risk asset sentiment is under pressure, with the crypto market retreating after an early surge.
2. Institutional Funds: Continuous Net Inflows into ETFs, ETH Outperforms
Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows for four consecutive days, totaling $75.5 million for the week, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing inflows of $136.5 million in a single week. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a weekly net inflow of $105.5 million, surpassing Bitcoin, becoming a mainstream choice for funds recently. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expressed a "very bullish" outlook for the crypto market over the next 12 months, believing that tokenization will initiate the next financial revolution.
3. Regulatory Dynamics: South Korean ETF Soon to Launch, Stablecoin Bill Delayed
The South Korean Financial Commission is set to announce policies regarding Bitcoin ETFs, likely making it the second major market in Asia to open a spot Bitcoin ETF. The U.S. stablecoin "GENIUS Act" implementation rules failed to meet the July deadline but are still on track to take effect in January 2027; exchange Kraken is applying for full banking licenses in Europe to promote the institutionalization of the crypto industry.
4. Market Sentiment and Liquidation: Continued Panic, Bears Are Still Being Squeezed
The crypto fear and greed index stands at 29, still in the "fear" range; Bitcoin's market share has risen to 69.8%, concentrating funds into mainstream coins. Over the past 24 hours, the total market short liquidation has continually outpaced longs, with Ethereum shorts being squeezed by about $16 million in a single day, the short squeeze scenario is slowly being released, but the opening volume on Monday has not significantly increased.
2. Overall Market Overview
The market overall exhibits a characteristic of "mainstream coins resisting declines, small-cap differentiation," with funds concentrating on leading assets, and there is a need to monitor the risk appetite linked to the U.S. stock market opening.
3. Mainstream Coins Daily Strategies and Entry Point References
1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Market Qualitative Analysis: The 4-hour oscillating upward structure is intact, with the lows gradually rising. The 50-day moving average (around $65,030) serves as key short-term resistance; impacted by geopolitical risks, the price surged and then retreated in the morning session, with volume not effectively expanding. It is likely to maintain range trading during the day, with follow-up trades after breaking key levels.
• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $64,200 – $64,300 (daily short-term holding level)
◦ Strong Support: $63,800 – $63,900 (the dividing line of long and short; a break could weaken the short-term structure)
• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $64,900 – $65,000 (round number + 50-day moving average resistance)
◦ Strong Resistance: $65,500 – $65,600 (previously densely traded zone)
• Daily Reference Ideas:
◦ If the price stabilizes after a pullback to the $64,100–$64,300 range, a small long position can be initiated with a stop loss below $63,700.
◦ If the price rebounds to the $64,900–$65,100 range and faces resistance, take a short position with a stop loss above $65,500.
◦ If it effectively stabilizes above $65,000, it can be followed up to around $65,500; falling below $63,800 would mean staying on the sidelines.
2. Ethereum (ETH)
Market Qualitative Analysis: The short-term rebound structure is intact, stabilizing above the 7-day moving average, with strong support formed near $1,870 through Fibonacci and pivot points. ETF funds are flowing into ETH significantly more than BTC, shorts are continually being squeezed, and the movement is relatively independent, but there is dense selling pressure above $1,900 that needs volume support to break through.
• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $1,855 – $1,860 (near daily pivot point)
◦ Strong Support: $1,840 – $1,845 (dividing line between long and short; a break would damage the rebound structure)
• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $1,883 – $1,888 (the daily first resistance level)
◦ Strong Resistance: $1,895 – $1,900 (previously densely traded zone)
• Daily Reference Ideas:
◦ If price stabilizes after a pullback to the $1,855–$1,865 range, a small long position can be initiated with a stop loss below $1,835.
◦ If the price rebounds to the $1,890–$1,900 range and faces resistance, take a short position with a stop loss above $1,915.
◦ If it effectively stabilizes above $1,900, it can be expected to rise to the $1,910–$1,915 range.
3. Solana (SOL)
Market Qualitative Analysis: Maintaining oscillation in the range of $73.5–$77, with weak volume and rebound strength weaker than ETH. The market mainly follows the overall trend; there is slight pullback pressure at the hourly level, with clear support below. Before breaking the range, adopt a high-sell low-buy strategy.
• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $75.0 – $75.2
◦ Strong Support: $74.2 – $74.5 (a break would weaken the short-term trend)
• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $76.4 – $76.7
◦ Strong Resistance: $77.2 – $77.5 (a break would open up upward space)
• Daily Reference Ideas:
◦ If price stabilizes after a pullback to the $74.8–$75.2 range, a small long position can be initiated with a stop loss below $73.8.
◦ If the price rebounds to the $76.4–$76.8 range and faces resistance, take a short position with a stop loss above $77.5.
◦ If it breaks $77.3 with volume, it can be followed up to around $78; if it falls below $74, focus on avoiding losses.
Operation Supplement Reminder
1. With geopolitical risk disturbances coinciding with Monday's market opening, volatility may increase. It is recommended to operate with light positions and strict stop-loss measures, keeping positions within 60% of usual levels.
2. Daily core observation variables: developments in the U.S.-Iran situation, changes in risk appetite after the U.S. stock market opens, and real-time fund flows in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
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