Although oil prices have not yet seen a significant drop, today we have already seen the Iranian Minister of Interior arrive in Islamabad, which indicates that both Iran and the United States still maintain room for diplomatic negotiations. Especially today, there was a video from Al Jazeera, where a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that under the mediation of a third party, the United States and Iran might restart a new round of talks. This is also what I often say, that the Strait of Hormuz is not just an issue for the United States.
Since the start of this war, Iran has regarded the Strait of Hormuz as its own, and the plan to charge for passage through the Strait itself violates the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Therefore, I believe that the United States' military blockade against Iran is welcomed by most countries, as no one wants Iran to set a precedent for privatizing the Strait.
Of course, this does not mean that oil prices will return to low levels in the short term, but the opening of negotiation windows is favorable for market expectations of successful talks. Neither the United States nor Iran wants to enter into a full-scale war, so the scope and scale of this conflict are actually not large.
Additionally, with the end of the World Cup, many friends have said that funds are starting to flow back into risk markets. Whether this is true, I have not yet seen the data, but today the trend of bitcoin:native is still good, leading U.S. stocks by a considerable margin. However, it is frustrating that I have a dual currency sale of $65,000 expiring tomorrow, and based on the current trend, it is highly likely to be executed tomorrow afternoon. I wonder if there is still a possibility for me to buy it back at a lower price.
On the other hand, I was not successful in buying at the low of $62,000 either. If I successfully sell at $65,000 tomorrow, my low buy might need to be raised to $63,000 or $64,000, which is a bit painful.
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