Today, I saw that some institutions in the United States have a significant divergence regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment this month. Although most institutions believe that the Federal Reserve will not adjust interest rates, there are still some institutions that believe the Federal Reserve will choose to raise rates, especially citing that Waller aims to reinforce policy-based decisions and demonstrate the independence of the Federal Reserve through rate hikes.
As for me personally, I do not believe the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates in July. One reason is that inflation has clearly decreased in June. Although oil prices have risen due to the war, they are not very high; even Trump has ceased attacks on Iran to accommodate the meeting, and oil prices have returned to below 80 dollars.
In this situation, saying there will be a rate hike is something I find hard to understand. Rather, I believe that Waller will continue to downplay expectations for the future, focusing still on data. There should be an acknowledgment of the war's impact on oil prices, but it will not quickly lead to a rate hike because of the war. Since there is no dot plot in July, I estimate that most Federal Reserve officials will choose to hold steady.
As for oil prices, I am somewhat worried that Trump is currently engaging in temporary restraint for the sake of the Federal Reserve's meeting, and I hope it is not like this.
For Bitcoin, the U.S. stock market has recently dropped sharply, but the hardness of bitcoin:native is still quite good. My dual currency expires tomorrow, and it is highly probable that I won't reach 63,000 dollars. I am considering whether it is necessary to raise it to 63,500 dollars. After all, if the U.S. and Iran really come to a peace talk, then I believe there is still a chance for the price to rise to 67,000 dollars.
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