1. Review of Yesterday's Market
Yesterday, the mainstream currencies still did not choose a clear direction. In the absence of sudden news disruptions, the market is likely to continue the trend of oscillation and consolidation, with both bulls and bears in a wait-and-see state.
2. Fundamentals: Non-Farm Data Disturbs Market Sentiment
Last night, the highly anticipated American July adjusted non-farm employment data and unemployment rate data were officially released, becoming the focus of market trading:
The data showed that the non-farm employment population in the U.S. unexpectedly recorded a decrease of 23,000, marking the first decline since February;
However, the unemployment rate in July slightly dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level since June 2025.
As a result, the market experienced a high and then a drop trend. In terms of news, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the current focus is only on the unemployment rate, which has already shown a decline; meanwhile, he believes that Trump will not suggest anything regarding interest rates to Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh. On the other hand, Federal Reserve official Bullard also stated that if the economy faces headwinds, it would be necessary to tighten monetary policy.
In addition, in terms of geopolitics, there has still been no significant progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran. Iran has not made any concessions in the negotiations concerning the memorandum of understanding and stated that if they want to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions must be lifted and compensation paid. This factor may continue to disturb oil and related market sentiment.
3. Technical Analysis: High-Level Consolidation, Waiting for Direction Choice
From the hourly level, the market continues to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern. The current oscillation range is approximately between 1938—1895, while the dividing line between bulls and bears is at 1872:
Upper Resistance: 1938 (upper boundary of the range);
Lower Support: 1895 (lower boundary of the range), 1872 (dividing line between bulls and bears).
4. Reference for Trading Ideas
For different types of traders, the following ideas can be considered (for reference only, not investment advice):
Trend Traders: Wait for the range to break before intervening.
If the hourly level breaks above 1938, consider going long in the direction of the trend, referencing a stop loss at 1908, with target levels at 2012 and 2132;
If it breaks below 1872, consider going short in the direction of the trend, referencing a stop loss at 1905, with target levels at 1801 and 1741.
Short-Term Traders: Within the range, consider a high sell low buy oscillation trading strategy.
For more details and specific operations, see you in tonight's live broadcast, we will analyze the market on-site and watch the K-line to explain the logic.
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The above analysis is for market communication only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; participation should control risk and make rational decisions.
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