CoinWResearch Institute
Summary
Unitree Technology is about to enter the public market, and the robotic star company will experience its first true market pricing. Previously, the market traded more on Unitree's future growth potential and expectations for the robotics industry; after the IPO, these expectations will begin to be validated by the public market. At the same time, the Pre-IPO perpetual contract has already provided market tools for price discovery around Unitree's future valuation, though it is not Unitree's stock but rather a high-volatility asset influenced by factors such as company fundamentals, IPO pricing, leverage, funding rates, and pricing mechanisms. For market participants, what is truly worth observing in Unitree's listing is not just the stock price on the first day but whether the high growth expectations formed previously can be realized through subsequent commercialization realities.
1. The Night Before Unitree's Listing: The Robotic Star Company Faces a Critical Pricing Moment
From 99,000 Yuan G1 to the "Chinese Variable" of the Robotics Industry
From the quadruped robot Go series to the humanoid robots G1 and H1, and further down to the R1 with a lower price point, Unitree has been very clear about one thing: transforming robots from high-cost devices in laboratories into products that can be truly purchased and used. The most symbolic is that G1 has brought the price of humanoid robots to the 99,000 Yuan level. A drop in price alone does not mean that the robots have completed large-scale commercialization, but it at least indicates that the robotics industry is gradually shifting from the stage of "can it be made" to "can it be made cheaper and sold more." Another characteristic of Unitree is that it is not content with being a pure assembler. The company continues to advance self-research of core components such as joint motors, reducers, and controllers, covering humanoid robots, quadruped robots, robotic components, and embodied intelligent models. From 2023 to 2025, the company's operating income is expected to grow from 159 million Yuan to 1.699 billion Yuan. This is also one of the reasons the market is willing to give Unitree high growth expectations: it represents not just "a robotics company" but an industrial path extending from core components and motion control to complete manufacturing and extending towards intelligent capabilities.
Don't Just Focus on Unitree: The Listing May Be a Valuation Test for the Entire Robotics Industry Chain
Unitree's listing is not an isolated event. If the robotics industry truly enters an acceleration phase, the market will not only trade Unitree but the overall industry chain's demand growth. Among these, Tesla (TSLA) remains an important benchmark in the global robotics track. The progress of Optimus's products will directly affect the market's judgment on the overall commercialization pace of the humanoid robotics industry. NVIDIA (NVDA) represents the underlying AI computing infrastructure behind robotics intelligence. As robots increasingly rely on vision, model reasoning, and real-time control, the development of AI hardware is closely related to robotics intelligence. Additionally, Meituan (03690.HK), as one of Unitree's investors, may influence the market's judgment on Unitree's ecological value through its business layout and capital relationships. Amazon (AMZN) is more suitable as an observation window for downstream robotics applications; its warehousing and logistics automation scenarios can help the market judge where robots can create real value in commercial scenarios. Meanwhile, upstream core components are also worthy of attention, including reducers, torque sensors, precision actuators, and AI hardware. However, it's important to note that the robotics industry chain is still in an early investment stage. There is a time lag between upstream capital expenditure, component orders, and the release of final demand. The market's observation of increased supply chain orders does not necessarily mean that the robots have completed large-scale commercialization. Therefore, Unitree's listing may become a public market "valuation test" for the entire robotics industry.
The 48 Hours Before Listing: What Changes in Expectations Are Happening?
In the final window before listing, market expectations for Unitree are continually changing. On the one hand, adjustments in the collaboration between Figure AI and BMW have caused market judgments regarding the commercialization pace of overseas humanoid robots to shift; on the other hand, Unitree's G1-EDU education version has launched pre-sales in North America at a price of about 16,000 US dollars, further indicating that domestic robots are attempting to expand into overseas education and developer markets. Policies and geopolitical risks are also worth paying attention to. As of August 10, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has not yet placed Unitree on the Entity List; therefore, there has been no notable escalation of policy risk so far. However, this does not mean that related risks have completely disappeared; future changes to U.S. policies regarding advanced robots, AI, and related supply chains should still be monitored. Additionally, some previously noted potential large orders still need further verification. For example, rumors concerning a million-dollar procurement by the Southern Power Grid have not yet produced formal bidding results. Therefore, compared to the actual product sales and IPO process that have already materialized, such potential orders temporarily serve better as variables in expectations rather than directly counting toward the company's certain commercialization outcomes. In other words, as of the night before the listing, Unitree's industrial story continues to strengthen, but there has yet to be a large-scale commercial landing event capable of fundamentally altering the situation. This is also the current expectation gap most notable in the market: while the long-term space for the robotics industry remains vast, whether Unitree can truly convert industry fervor into orders, shipments, and profits still requires time to validate.
The Real Change Brought by the IPO is "Who Will Price Unitree"
Unitree's IPO plans to issue 40,446,400 shares, accounting for about 10% of the total shares post-issuance, with the issue price set at 150.80 Yuan/share, corresponding to about 404.446 million shares post-issuance. Unitree is completing an important identity transformation. In the primary market phase, investors usually assess a company’s value through financing rounds, institutional valuations, and comparable companies; however, after entering the public market, Unitree will face real buy and sell orders daily, and the company's valuation will frequently change with stock prices, trading volumes, and market sentiment. Thus, before the listing, the market was discussing: "How much might Unitree be worth in the future?" After the listing, the market begins to answer: "How much is the public market willing to give Unitree now?" If Unitree can continue to expand shipments, enter industrial and high-value application scenarios, and maintain growth in overseas markets, then the previous high growth expectations may be further reinforced; conversely, if the commercialization speed falls below expectations, or if competitors like Tesla Optimus, Figure AI, and Xiaomi quickly close product and cost gaps, the public market may reassess Unitree's valuation. The IPO is not the end of the robotics story but rather a public valuation examination.
After Listing, What Should We Really Focus On?
For the market, the first observation window after Unitree's listing is certainly the price on the first day, but more importantly, the logic behind the price. For example, whether the company continues to disclose new orders of meaningful scale, whether overseas sales continue to expand, whether robots transition from education and demonstrations into industrial, logistics, and automotive manufacturing scenarios, and whether embodied intelligent models begin to truly enhance the practical working capabilities of robots. These variables do not determine the ups and downs of a single day but dictate whether the market should view Unitree as a “robot hardware company” or as a comprehensive robotics platform capable of sharing future embodied intelligence industry growth. This is the expectation gap most worth observing on the night before the listing.
2. Before Listing, the Market Has Started Trading "How Much is Unitree Worth"
Pre-IPO Trading is Not About Stocks, but About Future Valuation
Before Unitree officially enters the public market, the market has already seen Pre-IPO perpetual contracts based on UNITREE.
It should be noted that trading UNITREE does not equate to buying Unitree Technology's stock. UNITREE adopts a USDT-based perpetual contract mechanism, where users use USDT as the margin and profit/loss settlement unit, trading a contract for price discovery around Unitree's future value. It does not represent Unitree's stock itself, nor does it grant the holder shareholder rights. The existence of such products is due to a "blank period" that originally existed between primary market valuations and secondary market trading. Even before a company goes public, the market continues to discuss how much it is worth. Financing, orders, product launches, competitor dynamics, and IPO progress will all change investors' judgments about future value. The Pre-IPO contract effectively turned this originally indirect valuation competition into a price that can be continuously traded. Therefore, the core of UNITREE trading before the listing is: the market believes how much Unitree will ultimately be worth after its IPO.
A Significant Price Switch Will Occur Before and After Listing
As Unitree’s listing approaches, this difference will become more apparent. Currently, relevant Pre-IPO contracts are priced based on an estimated total share capital of approximately 404,464,340 shares, corresponding to the total share capital disclosed in this IPO. However, this does not mean that the Pre-IPO price can be directly equated to the post-listing stock price. Before the listing, the price lacks mature spot market anchor points; the market is trading expectations more. After the listing, Unitree's stock enters the public market, and genuine buy and sell supply and demand begin to play a role; the issue price, opening price, trading volume, float, and investor structure will all influence new price formation. Therefore, the IPO will effectively place previous valuation expectations on the public market's "scale" for re-evaluation. If there's a significant difference between market pricing during the Pre-IPO phase and the public market price post-IPO, it does not necessarily mean one side is "wrong"; it may indicate that the market is completing a new price discovery. This is why the listing itself does not mean that prices will necessarily rise. For a robot star company already highly followed by the market, the listing may become both a catalyst for further emotional surge and a turning point for high expectations to begin realizing or even returning to reality.
3. From Price to Liquidation: How is UNITREE Actually Traded?
Understanding why UNITREE's Pre-IPO perpetual contract exists, let's look at how it operates.
Perpetual Contracts Mean Prices Can Be Traded Continuously
UNITREE belongs to perpetual contracts, which do not have a fixed expiration date like traditional futures; margin, profit/loss, and settlement are all priced in USDT. Related products support up to 20x leverage, with a minimum price fluctuation unit of 0.01 USDT; specific contract multipliers, minimum order quantities, and margin requirements associated with different position sizes should be based on real-time parameters at the time of trading. What needs to be understood most is that leverage will not cause the asset itself to increase or decrease faster but will make your capital more sensitive to price changes. For example, suppose an account has 1,000 USDT margins and uses 10x leverage to establish a position of 10,000 USDT notional value. If the underlying rises by 5%, the theoretical unrealized profit will be around 500 USDT; if it drops by 5%, the theoretical unrealized loss will also be around 500 USDT. Actual liquidation will also be affected by maintenance margin, transaction fees, funding rates, and other factors, so it is not appropriate to equate any percentage directly with the liquidation line. Additionally, perpetual contracts have a variable not found in ordinary stocks: funding rates. The role of funding rates is to help keep the perpetual contract price linked to a reference price. When there is a significant imbalance between long and short forces, funding rates may also change accordingly. During long positions, even if the underlying price does not change significantly, funding rates may gradually affect the final returns. Therefore, for users with longer positions, "having the right direction" does not necessarily mean an ideal final return; the holding cost must also be considered.
Why Distinguish Between Latest Price, Index Price, and Mark Price?
For listed stocks, the prices seen in trading software are usually the market transaction prices. However, for Pre-IPO assets, it is not so straightforward. The latest transaction price is the price just generated from a transaction between buyers and sellers; the index price is closer to the price used by the system to measure the reference value of the underlying; while the mark price is primarily used for unrealized profit/loss and liquidation judgment. The relevant trading API provides real-time data interfaces for index prices and mark prices, and the mark price can be continuously obtained through WebSocket. Why not just use the latest transaction price to determine liquidation? Because during times of low liquidity, an abnormal transaction can instantaneously push the latest transaction price very high or low. If an account's liquidation completely relies on that one trade, normal positions may be harmed by the abnormal price. The significance of the mark price is that it adds a layer of "buffer" to the pricing. It is not meant to predict market direction but aims to make risk calculations more stable. It is important to note that currently, the public API can confirm data interfaces such as index prices and mark prices, but specific underlying sources for price feeds, weights of different data sources, downgrade rules for failures of single data sources, and thresholds of exceptional deviations are not fully disclosed in public documents. Therefore, these parameters cannot be inferred from experience, and actual trading should adhere to real-time rules for the corresponding product.
4. Risks That Are Easily Overlooked Before and After Listing
The risks of UNITREE are not just "20x leverage." Unitree itself is still in a rapid growth phase. After the listing, the transparency of public information will increase, but the commercialization of robotics remains uncertain. If the growth of orders, shipments, and application scenarios does not keep pace with capital market expectations, the valuation may be readjusted. Moreover, the robotics industry is entering an increasingly competitive phase, where technological routes, product prices, and production capacities may change rapidly. Additionally, Pre-IPO assets inherently carry a higher risk of price discovery. Without a mature spot market, prices are easily influenced by industry news and market sentiment. A significant order may quickly enhance expectations, while a period without new information may lead the market into an "information vacuum." In such cases, price fluctuations do not necessarily align with the company's operational changes on the day. What needs to be particularly cautious is that perpetual contracts can further amplify these fluctuations. 20x leverage means even small price changes can significantly affect margins, and in extreme market conditions, risks such as liquidation, automatic deleveraging (ADL), and lack of liquidity may also compound.
Another situation that is particularly easy to overlook is that a closure in the spot market does not mean that the perpetual contract market is closed. Ultimately, Unitree corresponds to assets on the STAR Market in A-shares, and after the listing, attention must be paid to weekends, public holidays, and non-trading periods in A-shares. During these times, there may be no new continuous transactions for the stock, but perpetual contracts can still be traded, and funding rates may continue to accrue. Suppose a user had a margin of 1,000 USDT and had established a position of 10,000 USDT using 10x leverage. If a significant piece of news breaks during a stock market closure and the reference price jumps 10% unfavorably on the next trading day, the theoretical unrealized loss could reach around 1,000 USDT. The actual result of liquidation will be influenced by maintenance margin, transaction fees, funding rates, and specific rules, but the absence of spot transactions during market closure does not mean that risks have vanished; the real risk may be concentrated and released when trading resumes. Therefore, long holidays, weekends, and significant announcement windows surrounding the listing are all worth special attention.
5. After Listing, How Do We Validate Today's Judgment?
After Unitree's listing, the most valuable analysis is not simply rewriting a "how much it rose" recap but reviewing whether the judgments made before the listing have been validated by reality. The first verification is to examine what kind of valuation the public market accepted. On the first day of listing, one can compare the opening price, closing price, trading volume, and turnover rate with the Pre-IPO prices. If there is a significant divergence, it means that the market is searching for a new valuation anchor. The second verification is whether commercialization has kept pace with the valuation. In the coming quarters, it will be necessary to continue observing Unitree's orders, shipments, overseas markets, and industrial applications. If robots truly begin to enter more production and service scenarios, the prior growth logic will be reinforced; if products remain primarily in education, demonstration, and research markets, then the high valuation will face greater verification pressure. The third verification will come from the entire robotics industry. If competitors like Tesla Optimus, Figure AI, and Xiaomi make new product breakthroughs, or if core component companies like reducers, actuators, and sensors experience significant order growth, then changes in Unitree's valuation cannot be understood in isolation from the industry beta. Finally, attention should be given to UNITREE's own operating status. On the first trading day and the days that follow, it is important to highlight changes in trading volume, funding rates, index prices, and mark prices, as well as whether any abnormal liquidations or ADL events occurred. This will help determine what further experiences are necessary for the Pre-IPO market to transition from "having prices" to "effective price discovery."
6. Conclusion
The significance of Unitree's listing is not just the increase of another robotics listed company but also that it may become an important node for the capital market to reevaluate the robotics industry. The high growth premium given to robots by the market must now be gradually realized through orders, shipments, and real applications. If Unitree can continuously convert industry fervor into commercial outcomes, its listing may become the starting point for rebuilding valuations in the robotics segment; conversely, it will also help the market more clearly assess how far this round of robotics enthusiasm is from true large-scale commercialization.
This article is for market research and mechanism explanation purposes only and does not constitute any investment or trading suggestions. Perpetual contracts carry high risks; leverage may amplify profits but can also result in quick losses of capital.
References
1. CoinW futures
trading API: https://www.coinw.com/api-doc/en/futures-trading/market/subscribe-mark-price
2. https://big5.sse.com.cn/site/cht/www.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/listing
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