In yesterday's analysis, three key price levels were highlighted: resistance level above at $64,000—$64,200, and support level below at $63,200.
The assessment at that time was that there was a chance for a short-term rebound, but the strength of the rebound would not be strong. The reason is that currently, only the hourly chart shows some continuation, while the 4-hour and daily levels have not formed a synchronized strengthening.
Therefore, whether the price can truly break through and stabilize after rebounding to $64,000—$64,200 is crucial for judging the subsequent trend. If it cannot break through, the resistance above still exists, and the price may decline again.
The facts have also largely aligned with this judgment.
Two tests of $64,000, both unable to stabilize
After a day of sideways movement yesterday, Bitcoin made two attempts to rebound to $64,000 but failed to stabilize both times.
Subsequently, the price fell under pressure, dipping to a low of $62,800, which was $400 lower than the previously expected $63,200.
However, there was a quick recovery at $62,800, and the price rebounded to around $63,500 afterwards.
It is important to note that this round of rebound was noticeably weak.
Yesterday, we provided a long position on Ethereum, starting to layout around $1,828, which subsequently rose to around $1,900, reaching the profit target. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's resistance zone also indicated clearly at $64,000; entering short positions here also had a certain profit margin.
The biggest feature of the current market is that liquidity is noticeably low.
The market could range sideways for a day or even two, but suddenly spurred by some news, it could see a rapid large candlestick. Therefore, technical analysis can help us identify key positions, but executing trades must also consider market rhythm and risk management.
What truly matters is not guessing daily if the price will go up or down, but when the price reaches $63,496, you can quickly realize that there is pressure around $63,800, $64,000, and $64,200 above.
This sensitivity to key prices is the core of trading ability.
Hourly Chart: Short-term is repairing, but the strength is limited
From the hourly chart, after two failed rebounds last night that could not break through $64,000, the price quickly dipped, reaching a low of $62,800.
Afterwards, several hourly candles gradually recovered from the decline, and the price gradually moved upwards.
During this period, the price rebounded to around $63,200, but again faced selling pressure, and then slowly moved upwards again.
The price has now returned to around $63,500, very close to yesterday's closing price of $63,456.
This means there is indeed some support for the current rebound, but the price returning to its previous position does not mean the trend has completed a reversal.
When moving down from around $64,000 yesterday, this position represented clear resistance; today, after rebounding from $62,800, we need to observe whether it can further break above around $63,500.
Thus, the short-term is still in a repairing phase, not having completed a trend reversal.
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4-hour: $63,600—$64,100 is the pressure rebound must face
The 4-hour level is still observing a decline from the high point near $65,400 on August 10.
After touching a low of $62,800 last night, the price quickly recovered and formed a clear long lower shadow structure.
Then a bullish candle appeared, indicating that there was indeed some support below.
However, the current downtrend in the 4-hour chart has not been genuinely broken.
For a reversal to form subsequent, first a breakthrough is needed around the trend pressure near $63,700-$63,800, with more significant pressure located at $64,000—$64,100.
Therefore, the 4-hour chart can currently only be defined as a repair following a decline, not directly as a trend reversal.
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Daily Chart: Closing with an extremely narrow doji, market enters a critical selection period
At the daily level, there is still a clear convergence structure.
After rebounding from around $57,000 to below $67,000, the market gradually weakened, forming a phase high around August 9-10, after which the high points continued to decline.
The price has now returned to the vicinity of the lower trend line, but has not truly broken it.
It is worth noting that on August 13, this daily candle touched a low of $62,800, a high near $64,000, and ultimately closed with a very standard doji.
Throughout the entire day, there were significant fluctuations up and down, but the final close basically returned to near the opening price, meaning the day's gains and losses were almost entirely smoothed out by the market.
This extremely narrow-bodied doji indicates that neither bulls nor bears have formed a clear advantage.
From a structural perspective, the market has entered a very critical convergence phase.
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Weekly Chart: The overall direction remains weak but has not changed the large-scale structure
At the weekly level, we are still observing a decline from the high near $67,000 on July 20.
This week, the price opened at a high near $64,800 and currently dipped to a low of $62,800, with the price returning to around $63,500.
Although there has been a significant decline this week, it still remains within the overall range of the July rebound and has not dropped to a position that requires redefining the large direction.
Therefore, the weekly chart currently serves more as a market background.
The currently most important weekly intervals remain $65,800—$66,000 and $63,200.
Only if the price genuinely breaks through $65,800—$66,000 and maintains stability above, or falls below $63,200 and runs consistently below, will the structure at the weekly level show more obvious changes.
Open Interest: Both rising and falling are accompanied by position exits
Looking at the trading volume and open interest.
During the rebound from $62,800 last night, the total open interest did not increase synchronously and actually showed a decline.
More importantly, open interest decreased during the downward movement and also decreased during the rebound process.
This indicates that last night's market was more likely driven by the liquidation of existing positions rather than a significant influx of new trending positions.
If the price rises while open interest continues to increase, it indicates that new long positions are accumulating; if the price falls while open interest clearly increases, it suggests that new short forces are forming.
Currently, neither situation is pronounced.
Thus, the current market is still lacking incremental funds required for a trending market.
This is also why the price lacks strength when rising, and similarly does not form a continuous acceleration when falling.
It currently resembles a continuous grinding in a very narrow range.
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MA Moving Averages: $63,400 becomes a key defensive position
Regarding the moving averages, the price is currently repeatedly pressing against the 60-day moving average.
The 60-day moving average is currently around $63,400, providing certain support.
The 5-day moving average is around $63,575, and above there are the 7-day and 20-day moving averages forming resistance.
Hence, the price is actually sandwiched into a very narrow range:
Below: Support from 60-day moving average around $63,400.
Above: Short-term moving average resistance around $63,600.
If the 60-day moving average is effectively broken, and the 4-hour level consistently closes below it, then the moving average system will further trend bearish.
Therefore, today $63,400 is a very noteworthy key position.
Bollinger Bands: Volatility continues to compress
The hourly Bollinger Bands expanded after probing downward last night, but the price still has not effectively broken through the middle track.
The middle track of the hourly chart is about at $63,500, with the upper track near $64,000, and the lower track around $63,000.
Thus, even if the hourly chart rebounds, the upper side will still face resistance near $64,000.
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are even more pronounced.
After expanding earlier, they are now starting to narrow again, with the middle track around $63,700, the upper track about $64,300, and the lower track about $63,100.
This indicates that the volatility space of the 4-hour chart is further compressing.
When Bollinger Bands compress to this degree, the true change in market rhythm often does not come from a short-period candlestick but from an effective closure at the 4-hour level.Daily share of real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnostics, unloading ideas, and market practical content. Scan to follow the public account“Bitcoin Watermelon”,Join the community for strategies!
Vegas Channel: $63,600 and $64,100 form double pressure
The Vegas Channel also shows that the market is in an extremely compressed state.
Currently, the main hourly channel is highly intertwined, with dense resistance forming at $64,000—$64,100 above.
EMA12 is around $63,400—$63,600, so $63,600 has become a very important boundary for the short-term.
The 144 and 169 moving average channels at the 4-hour level have clearly flattened.
Historically, when these two moving averages are extremely narrowed or even close to flattening, it often signifies that market volatility has been compressed to the extreme, and new changes in market conditions are likely to follow.
Therefore, the core information provided by the Vegas Channel is very clear:
The market has not yet truly selected a direction, but volatility has already compressed to a relatively extreme position.
MACD: Hourly line repairs, daily line remains weak
Regarding MACD, the hourly line has formed a golden cross, but it currently remains below the zero line.
Thus, this more indicates that the bearish momentum is repairing in the short term, rather than interpreting it as the beginning of a new upward trend.
The 4-hour chart also formed a golden cross, but it still sits below the zero line, indicating that short to medium-term bearish momentum is weakening but not completing a true strengthening.
The daily line, however, is entirely different.
Currently, the MACD momentum bars on the daily line are still in the negative region, with recent values gradually approaching around 210 from approximately 58, 146, and 195.
Although the negative values continue to expand, the recent changes have obviously slowed down.
This indicates that the bearish momentum at the daily level still exists but is not showing obvious acceleration at the moment.
If the hourly and 4-hour lines continue to repair in the future, coupled with the gradual convergence of daily momentum, then it may not be impossible for the daily MACD to further remedy or even approach the zero line over the weekend.
DMI: Bears dominate, but trend driving force is insufficient
Regarding DMI, the hourly line still favors bears, but the distance between the two directional lines has significantly narrowed, and ADX has also begun to decline.
The 4-hour still maintains a bearish domination, but similarly shows minor changes; the short to medium term remains weak but has not accelerated significantly.
The bearish direction on the daily line likewise dominates, but the current driving force is not strong.
The weekly line is different; not only does the bearish direction dominate, but ADX remains in a certain upward state.
Thus, the weak backdrop of the long-term trend has not disappeared.
However, the weekly line's period is too large; it can only determine the larger environment of the market but cannot directly dictate the specific trend within a day.
Therefore, what DMI is truly telling us right now is not that the market will definitely continue to decline, but that the quality of the current trend confirmation is still insufficient.
RSI: Hourly line repairs, but mid-cycle has not kept up
Regarding RSI, the hourly line has started to move upwards from a low position, currently returning to around 50.
This indicates that the short-term weakness from last night has been somewhat alleviated.
However, the 4-hour RSI remains below 50, while daily and weekly lines are also in a neutral to weak region.
Therefore, currently only the hourly line has shown repairs, while the mid-cycle has not simultaneously strengthened.
In this situation, the advantages of chasing upward or downward are not apparent, making it more suitable to understand the market as a fluctuating range.
ATR: Volatility is already very low
ATR also confirms this.
The current volatility of the hourly line is only around $200, leaving very limited space.
The 4-hour ATR is approximately around $400; considering the current price near $63,400, there is not enough movement space to easily touch $64,100 or $62,800.
In other words, the volatility of the 4-hour chart has clearly narrowed.
This is also why many technical indicators currently appear, but the actual executable space is very limited.
The past $200 volatility might not even be worth noting, but in the current environment of extremely low volatility, $200 has become an important fluctuation space for the short-term.
Fibonacci: There is multi-cycle resonance near $63,400
From the perspective of Fibonacci retracement, the previous round of market action from around $62,200 to around $65,400 has now returned to the vicinity of 0.382.
The 0.382 position is approximately at $63,471, which corresponds to the area of $63,400—$63,500.
Although the price briefly dipped to $62,800 last night, it quickly rebounded and is still stuck near 0.382.
If $63,400 continues to be breached, the next level to watch would be around $62,900—$62,800.
From the broader daily line retracement structure, the price is again exactly at the vicinity of 0.618.
If this position cannot be held, then further attention needs to be paid to the 0.5 position around $62,300 and the 0.382 position around $61,200.
Therefore, $63,400 is currently a key support level overlapping across multiple cycles and indicators.Daily share of real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnostics, unloading ideas, and market practical content. Scan to follow the public account“Bitcoin Watermelon”,Join the community for strategies!
Today's core range
Putting all the above indicators together, we can arrive at a very clear conclusion.
First, $63,400 is the most important short-term support level for today.
This level simultaneously overlays the 4-hour structure, daily structure, and the support of the 60-day moving average.
Second, $63,600 is the first short-term pressure level.
This corresponds to the 5-day moving average and the 4-hour EMA12.
Third, $64,100 is a more important resistance level above.
This combines the 4-hour trend pressure, Vegas Channel, and the prior dense pressure near $64,000.
Fourth, $62,800 is the second support level below.
The market already tested this position last night, and if it breaks below again, the market's fluctuation center is likely to shift further downwards.
Therefore, today's core operating range is temporarily defined as:
Upper pressure: $63,600, $64,100.
Lower support: $63,400, $62,800.
The larger fluctuation range can temporarily be seen as $63,100—$63,600.
Final Judgment: Narrow fluctuations with a slight downward emphasis
Considering the hourly, 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts, the most obvious feature of the current market is not strong bullishness or strong bearishness, but rather low volatility narrow fluctuations.
However, based on the moving averages, DMI, RSI, and the daily structure, the fluctuation center still slightly leans downwards.
Therefore, the main focus right now should not be predicting whether the next candlestick will go up or down, but rather observing whether key positions can be confirmed through the 4-hour closure.
If the 4-hour can regain stability above $63,600, then the judgment of the short-term downtrend needs to be paused, and there may be an opportunity to test $64,000—$64,100 further.
If $63,400 is effectively broken below, especially with a 4-hour closing confirmation below $63,400, then $63,100 and $62,800 will gradually shift from the lower boundary of the fluctuation range to become new downward target areas.
Conversely, if $62,800 is once again effectively broken below, further attention should be paid to $62,300 and $61,200.
On the flip side, if the price can break through and consistently stabilize above $64,100, then the short-term structure will truly begin to change.
So do not simply interpret the hourly MACD golden cross as “the market is going to rebound.”
The hourly line is just starting to repair, the 4-hour has not genuinely strengthened, and the daily has yet to complete confirmation.
What can currently genuinely change the judgment remains the breakthrough of key positions and the effective closure at the 4-hour level.
Currently, Bitcoin has entered a very typical phase of “waiting for direction selection under low volatility.”
The price fluctuates between $63,400—$63,600, appearing to have small space, but it is exactly this extremely compressed market that requires waiting for true directional confirmation.
Thus, at this stage, instead of chasing upward or downward, it's better to patiently await the market's answer.
Watch support at $63,400, short-term strength at $63,600, reversal strength at $64,100, and downward risk at $62,800.
These four positions essentially represent the core of today's market.
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