Bitcoin faces pressure again, why has the market suddenly lost rebound momentum?
Bitcoin has dropped back to around $63,000, with a weekly decline of about 3%.
Meanwhile, Ethereum has fallen to $1,877, down about 1% in 24 hours; SOL, BNB, HYPE, and DOGE have also experienced varying degrees of pullback.
However, it is difficult to explain why this market has continued to be weak if we only look at prices.
What is truly worth noting is that three factors are simultaneously putting pressure on the crypto market:
Regulatory progress is stalled, Bitcoin ETF funds are flowing out, and U.S. long-term Treasury yields continue to rise.
These three factors correspond to the policy expectations of the crypto market, institutional funds, and global liquidity.
The simultaneous deterioration of these factors also explains why Bitcoin is currently struggling to establish an effective rebound.
1. Regulatory expectations cool down, market lacks new policy catalysts
Recently, there have been some unfavorable changes in the U.S. crypto regulatory environment.
The U.S. "CLEAR Act" has stalled in the Senate, and the market’s anticipated regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto market has not made any further breakthroughs for now.
Meanwhile, the much-discussed "innovation exemption" rule from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may also face continued delays.
This rule was originally seen by the market as an important policy tool to promote blockchain and tokenized securities development.
If relevant rules could be implemented, the market might gain clearer regulatory expectations.
However, with the delays, the market currently lacks new policy positives in the short term.
The SEC's "Reg Crypto" initiative is also experiencing delays, with a planned public meeting postponed and no new time announced for it yet.
This means that the recent U.S. crypto market is not facing further regulatory easing, but rather the speed of policy implementation is below market expectations.
For a market that had already priced in expectations of regulatory improvements, this naturally creates a certain amount of pressure.
2. ETF funds reverse, institutional buying cools
If regulation affects market expectations, then ETF fund flows impact actual buying.
Data shows that since this week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a cumulative net outflow of about $333 million.
In the previous week, these funds recorded a net inflow of about $853 million.
This indicates that the strong inflow of institutional funds has not been sustained.
What's more concerning is that this year, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have already seen net outflows exceeding $4 billion.
Of course, this does not mean that institutions have completely exited the market.
But it at least indicates one issue:
When Bitcoin's price is around $63,000, there has not been enough strong new capital to push the price upward.
This is also why BTC's rebound increasingly relies on existing funds rather than continuous new funds.
If ETF funds can turn back towards sustained net inflows, the foundation for Bitcoin's rebound may be further strengthened.
📌 If you want to continuously follow changes in BTC, ETH, and the macro market, feel free to follow the public account "Crypto Spring and Autumn," which breaks down market hotspots and logic every day.
3. 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 5.22%, liquidity pressure re-emerges
The third source of pressure comes from traditional financial markets.
In the latest auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, the yield reached 5.22%.
Some traders believe that this level has reached a very high position.
For Bitcoin, the significant impact of rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields is not simply about "whether Treasury yields go up or down," but rather:
The risk-free yield has increased.
When long-term U.S. Treasuries can offer higher yields, the opportunity cost for investors holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin also increases.
At the same time, higher long-term rates imply increased financing costs for companies and financial markets, which may tighten the overall financial environment.
Therefore, in the context of ETF fund outflows and the cooling of regulatory expectations, the further rise in Treasury yields will undoubtedly amplify market pressures.
4. Why does XRP maintain at $1?
Among mainstream coins, XRP is currently particularly noteworthy.
XRP continues to fluctuate around $1, and recently has performed significantly worse than some mainstream assets.
$1 is not only a round number but also an important psychological support on the market sentiment level.
If this position can be maintained, it means that there is still some buying power in the market.
However, if $1 is ultimately breached, the market needs to be wary of increased short-term stop-loss and selling.
Especially against the backdrop of changes in the regulatory environment, XRP, as a mainstream asset highly correlated with U.S. regulatory policy, may exhibit price sensitivity more than other assets.
Therefore, in the coming period, whether XRP can hold above $1 is an important indicator to observe mainstream coin risk appetite.
5. The real problem for Bitcoin is “lack of catalysts”
When looking at several factors together, the current market is actually very clear.
On the regulatory front, there have been no new significant breakthroughs;
in terms of ETFs, funds have shifted from net inflows back to net outflows;
and macro-wise, U.S. long-term Treasury yields remain high.
The combined result of these three is:
While there is some support below Bitcoin, there is also a lack of sufficiently strong driving force above.
Therefore, the current market is more like being in a "waiting for new catalysts" phase.
If ETF net inflows re-emerge in the future and there is substantial progress in U.S. regulatory policies, the current correction may become an opportunity for capital deployment.
Conversely, if ETF outflows continue, Treasury yields continue to rise, and regulatory expectations further cool, then the support around $63,000 needs to be closely monitored.
There is new news every day in the market, but what truly matters is judging whether these news will affect prices.
If you wish to continue seeing more analysis on BTC, ETH, ETF fund flows, macroeconomic trends, and market trends, you can follow the public account "Crypto Spring and Autumn." We will continue to break down complex market information into more understandable logic.
6. The market hasn’t lost hope for the fourth quarter
It’s noteworthy that a short-term weak market does not mean the market has completely turned pessimistic about the medium to long-term situation.
Matt Mena, a senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, believes that the crypto market's previous performance still significantly outperformed some traditional assets, and he sees considerable upward potential for the third and fourth quarters.
His predictions are bolder, suggesting that Bitcoin could reach $100,000, Ethereum $3,000, HYPE $70, and SOL $110 in the future.
However, these targets represent more of the market’s optimistic expectations for the future and cannot directly serve as a basis for short-term price movement assessments.
For the current market, rather than prematurely discussing $100,000, it’s more important to first answer three questions:
Can BTC hold above $63,000 again?
Can Bitcoin ETF funds flow back?
Can XRP maintain above $1?
If these three signals show significant improvement, the market's risk appetite may truly recover.
Before that, the triple pressures of regulation, funding, and interest rates remain the core variables the crypto market faces.
—— I am Mr. X of Web3, a content creator focused on crypto market and macro trend analysis.
If you want to keep updated on BTC, ETH, XRP, and changes in the global macro market, feel free to scan and follow the public account "Crypto Spring and Autumn." We break down important market hotspots every day and help understand the logic behind market movements, not just surface fluctuations.
Disclaimer: This article represents only the personal views of the author and does not represent the position and views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone. Any disputes between users and authors are unrelated to this platform. If the articles or images on the webpage involve infringement, please provide relevant proof of rights and identity documents and send an email to support@aicoin.com. The relevant staff of this platform will conduct an investigation.