Many people originally believed that "the bear market would bottom out in October, and it might even drop to $40,000," but in the past two days, Bitcoin suddenly surged by 10%, forcefully breaking through $70,000, directly setting the largest short squeeze since 2021!
Behind this surge, the bloodbath in derivatives, the flow of ETF institutional funds, the concentration of on-chain chips, and the operational logic of key opinion leaders together form the core panorama of the current cryptocurrency market.
1. Leverage Liquidation and Whale Dynamics: $1.1 Billion Liquidation, Gambler's Shorts Liquidated 8 Times
Recently, the derivatives market has undergone extremely intense leverage clearing:
Massive Liquidation Data: In the last 24 hours, a total of 130,024 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $1.106 billion. Among them, the largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid - BTC-USD, with a single value as high as $25.1387 million.
"Gambler 0x004E" was completely liquidated: A typical short representative in the market—address 0x004E was just fully liquidated on its $BTC short position! In the past two days, this address attempted to short $BTC and $ETH 8 times but failed each time, losing a total of $3.28 million.
2. Institutional Fund Flows: ETF Continues Strong Net Inflow (Latest Update August 20)
Institutional funds are showing extremely strong buying support in the over-the-counter market, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs showing significant sustained net inflows.
#Bitcoin ETF:
1-day net flow: +6,603 $BTC (+$472.2 million)
7-day net flow: +11,149 $BTC (+$797.21 million)
#Ethereum ETF:
1-day net flow: +78,306 $ETH (+$177.85 million)
7-day net flow: +132,276 $ETH (+$300.42 million)
3. On-Chain Chip Structure: Over 1.15 Million BTC Accumulated, Chip Concentration Approaches "High-Risk Zone"
Historically rare chip accumulation: On August 5, at a single price of $63,000, 1.15 million BTC had already been accumulated! This is extremely rare in Bitcoin history. It is not a coincidence, but rather the result of BTC's price maintaining low volatility and long-term trading accumulation.
Chip Concentration Soars:
August 5: The near chip concentration has risen to 13.5%. Chips cannot accumulate indefinitely, and the long-short competition must reach a critical point to determine a winner, making it increasingly exciting to see what will happen next.
August 10: The chip concentration further rose to 14.8%! Half a foot is in the "high-risk zone."
Understanding "Risk" and Subsequent Trend Changes:
Note! The risk here does not simply refer to upward or downward movements, but to the "huge volatility" that erupts after extreme compression.
The concentration of chips itself does not predict direction, but based on historical data patterns: When the curve starts to turn, if the price of BTC was increasing before, the probability of continuing to move upward is greater; conversely, the probability of continuing to move downward is greater.
Currently, the curve is still rising, and it is temporarily impossible to predict which side has a greater probability next. But it can be confirmed that risk is accumulating, and massive volatility is brewing...
4. KOL Practical Perspective: Not Predicting Price Levels, Understanding the Discipline and Risk Control of Buying on Dips
Although the short-term surge was unexpected, the investment logic of the market's hardcore guests is more worthy of reference — the focus is not on predicting price levels, but on a set of discipline and investment style of buying more as prices drop:
1. Pyramid-style Positioning Discipline Based on "Risk Levels"
Using the "Risk Level" from the Into The Crypto Verse website to determine one's buying multiples:
Risk level between 0.5 and 0.6: Start accumulating;
Break below 0.49: Double the purchase amount next week;
Drop to 0.39: Increase the purchase amount to 4 times;
Break below 0.29: Increase the purchase amount to 8 times.
Practical Example: Currently, the risk level is around 0.3, so the buying volume this Monday is directly 4 times that of last week.
2. Buying Logic at the 200-Week Moving Average: Historically, every time someone says "it's over," it has always been a buying point
The vicinity of the 200-week moving average has long been seen as a buying zone, but it is not an exact bottom:
2015: Dropped below for a moment;
2018: After dipping below, everyone shouted that it would zero out, but it bought in at $3,000;
2020: Pandemic drop below $312;
2022: Even the 200-week, 250-week, and 300-week moving averages were broken, buying in at $15,000 to $17,000.
Every time a breakdown happens, someone shouts "the crypto industry is over," but looking back all are excellent buying points, and looking at it now, there is no loss at all.
3. Political and Economic Judgments on the CLARITY Act and White House Crypto Conference
Determining its essence is "posturing": The CLARITY Act was postponed to September, right in the midterm election year, and the Democrats will never allow Trump to take a legislative victory to conduct a "victory tour."
WFLI and USD1: WFLI obtained a banking license, USD1 has already become the 5th largest stablecoin, but the president is pushing it mainly because it benefits his company; this road is bound to be difficult.
Regulatory Landscape: Congress is unreliable; the SEC and CFTC will come out to fill the gaps, but their overall driving effect on the entire crypto market is very limited.
A critical point has emerged; discipline and risk awareness must go hand in hand
Considering the wave of whale liquidations, continued net inflows into ETFs, high concentrations of chips on-chain, and the KOL practical framework, the current cryptocurrency market is at a critical point of long-short competition.
Short-term bullish momentum is strengthened by short squeezes and institutional buying, but chip concentration has entered a high-risk interval, and volatility could be triggered at any time.
For market participants, instead of getting entangled in "whether it has bottomed" or "target price levels," it is better to focus on executable risk management and position discipline.
AICoin will continue to track on-chain data, fund flows, and contract dynamics to provide readers with more timely market insights.
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Disclaimer: This article is only for strategy popularization and activity information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets, past performance does not guarantee future results, please invest rationally according to individual risk tolerance.
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