First, the conclusion: BTC is really different now
Recently, many people have asked: With BTC's recent surge breaking through $75,000 to hit a new high, is this a rebound, or is the bull market really back?
My judgment is straightforward: This time, it cannot simply be treated as an ordinary rebound. BTC's fundamentals, liquidity, and technical aspects are all simultaneously strengthening.
Of course, I won't say that the bull market is 100% confirmed, nor will I say that buying in will definitely lead to a rise. The market does not have that certainty. But if you ask me whether now is a position worth paying attention to and worth gradually entering, my answer is : Yes, and it feels much more comfortable than waiting until everyone starts calling it a bull market.
The reason is simple: The current market sentiment has not yet gone completely crazy, and prices have not entered a phase where everyone is chasing gains, but there are already several very obvious changes on the market.
1. Why has BTC suddenly become strong? The core reasons are three things
First, the pressure from U.S. debt and global debt is increasing, and funds are starting to look for "non-dilutable" assets
Recently, the market has refocused on gold and BTC, with the core backdrop being the pressure from U.S. debt and global debt.
How should this be understood? Very simply.
When the market believes that the future scale of currency and debt will continue to expand, funds will start to look for limited-supply assets that cannot be printed at will. Gold is like this, and BTC is like this. The total supply cap of BTC is 21 million coins, and this property will not suddenly change because a country needs to stimulate its economy.
Therefore, BTC is now being recognized by funds again not because of the slogan "digital gold," but because global funds are starting to rethink a question: Can the cash and bonds in hand maintain their purchasing power in the future?
Of course, a rise in U.S. Treasury yields will also suppress risk assets in the short term, so this is not a one-sided positive. But in the long run, the larger the debt, the more easily the allocation value of scarce assets can be re-discussed.
Second, U.S. regulation is shifting from "suppressing cryptocurrencies" to "paving the way for institutions"
The biggest trouble the U.S. has posed for the cryptocurrency industry in the past was not a lack of money in the market, but rather that institutions didn’t know whether they could enter, how to enter, and who would be responsible if problems occurred.
This situation is now changing.
Regulatory agencies like the SEC are promoting a clearer regulatory framework for crypto assets, and the White House's Crypto Summit featured institutions like the SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Kraken, Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, and DTCC.
What does this indicate? It indicates that the crypto industry is no longer just a game for retail investors and small exchanges; the traditional financial system is seriously studying how to incorporate BTC into its own framework.
Once regulations become clear, pension funds, family offices, funds, and large asset management institutions will find it easier to allocate BTC. What institutions fear most is not price fluctuations, but unclear rules, assets that cannot be held in custody, and compliance that cannot be explained.
Thus, a clearer regulatory pathway is not just a short-term sentiment booster for BTC; it is the infrastructure for long-term fund entry.
Third, leverage has been cleaned up, and the market is not as "thin" as before
BlackRock's latest report a few days ago suggested that the previous large decline in BTC was related to high leverage liquidation and funds shifting from BTC to AI-related assets.
This part is actually easy to understand: When prices are rising, everyone keeps adding leverage; the higher the price goes, the higher the leverage. Once prices start to fall, liquidations will continue to pressure the market, resulting in cascading liquidations.
This kind of decline appears very frightening, but it also has one effect: it clears out leveraged funds that are weak.
BlackRock's white paper described the previous roughly 50% retracement of BTC as a correction of positions and leverage structure, rather than a complete failure of BTC's long-term investment logic. The report also noted that in specific historical samples, adding 1%-2% BTC to a traditional 60/40 portfolio improved risk-adjusted returns.
The most important message here is not "everyone should buy 1%-2%," but rather: Large asset management institutions still view BTC as an asset that can be included in portfolios, not as a speculative game that has already ended.
2. The technical indicators have sent a signal: this is not just a simple upward line
Weekly: MACD bottom divergence indicates bears are weakening
In the weekly chart, the most crucial part is not the final upward candlestick but the MACD below.
The price keeps weakening at low levels, but the MACD has not simultaneously reached a weaker new low, which is a typical bottom divergence signal. Bottom divergence does not mean "a surge is coming soon," but rather that: The price is still dropping, but the force of the drop is not as great as it was before.
In the past, during each drop, the bears could push the price and MACD down together; this time, although the price is still oscillating at a low level, the MACD has started to recover, the histogram is narrowing from negative values, and both the DIF and DEA have begun turning around.
This indicates that the market is changing: sellers have not completely disappeared, but their efficiency in continuing to pressure the market has significantly decreased.
4-hour: EMA bullish alignment, short-term trend has turned bullish
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the EMA10, EMA20, EMA40, EMA60, and EMA120 have shown a clear bullish alignment, with short-term moving averages above longer-term moving averages, and the price standing above multiple moving averages.
What does this represent?
It represents that short-term funds are now willing to buy at higher prices. In the past, whenever prices rebounded, moving averages would push down; now, when prices pull back to the moving averages, funds are taking on positions instead.
At the same time, the 4-hour MACD histogram has significantly enlarged, and trading volume has also increased synchronously. This means that it is not a "pump without volume" but rather a trend change with real trading participation.
Of course, we should not blindly pursue too fast in the 4-hour timeframe. The healthiest trends are often not continuous rises, but instead, a rise followed by a pullback to the EMA20 or EMA40 range, with a decrease in volume, and then a breakout with increased volume. A breakthrough that can be sustained is real strength; if it can only spike and cannot be held, that is a false move.
3. Is this the best time to enter? I believe the focus should be on "phased entry," not "going all in"
Many people like to ask for a precise price: What exactly should I buy at?
But the real question is not "at what dollar amount to buy," but rather: If you buy in and the price drops by 15% or 20%, can you still hold on?
From the current structure, BTC is in a relatively attractive phase: the downtrend has begun to ease, the short-term has turned strong, but market sentiment has not yet completely gone into a frenzy. This position usually has a better cost-efficiency ratio than chasing gains in the later stages of a bull market.
To put it more intuitively: It feels like the market has just woken up from the ICU—able to get out of bed but not yet ready to run a marathon.
Therefore, a more suitable approach is phased entry rather than investing all funds at once. You can divide your trading plan into three scenarios:
So my conclusion is: Now is a region worth positioning in, but it is not a region for mindless all-ins.
If it is a long-term investment, spot trading, phased entry, low leverage, or even no leverage is a more reasonable approach. If it is short-term trading, you must set stop-losses because the 4-hour bullish alignment could also be undermined by a large red candle.
4. How to choose an exchange? Don't just look at "how much they give."
If the market outlook is correct but you choose the wrong platform, you could lose all your profits.
When choosing an exchange, first check whether it is available in your region, if it is convenient for fund transfers, whether it has sufficient liquidity in spot and contract trading, and if the platform's risk control is stable; only then consider rebates and registration rewards.
I recommend choosing from these three:
These three platforms have in common that their products are quite complete, and they have matured offerings for spot trading, derivatives, wealth management, and new user activities. What new users really need to focus on is not which platform gives the most money, but rather three questions: how much trading volume do they have to complete to earn rewards, can the rewarded principal be directly withdrawn, and do they need to take on extra contract risks to obtain the rewards?
In short: You can take advantage of rewards, but don’t take on thousands of dollars of liquidation risk for a few dozen dollars in rewards.
Final summary: The opportunity for BTC has arrived, but opportunities always belong to those with a plan
The changes in BTC can be summarized in one line:
The fundamentals are starting to make sense again, liquidity is beginning to return, and the technical indicators are also sending reversal signals.
Weekly MACD bottom divergence indicates that bearish momentum is waning; the 4-hour EMA bullish alignment indicates that the short-term trend has turned bullish; and the increasing trading volume and expanding MACD histogram show that this rise is not completely devoid of fund participation.
Additionally, the improvement in regulatory pathways, existing institutional allocation logic, and prior leverage cleanup indicate that BTC is indeed transitioning from "bear market decline" to "bull market recovery."
But I still want to emphasize: Just because the trend is bullish does not mean the price will rise every day; having a good position does not guarantee immediate profitability upon entry.
The best plan is not to predict each candlestick but to write out your rules in advance: how to act on a breakout, how to react to a pullback, and how to handle a breach of previous lows. Choose a safe, liquid exchange with clear activity rules, and participate using spot and phased strategies without exposing yourself to unnecessary high-leverage risks.
If BTC can establish a solid hold on key resistance levels and maintain it during pullbacks, then the level of this market could continue to improve. Now it is at least time for serious study and preparation, rather than continuing to wait and hesitate.
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