The Qixi Festival should be celebrated, but this week's market has two things worth everyone’s close attention.
One is to observe what the Federal Reserve thinks internally about inflation, employment, and the potential for future rate cuts. The other is the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, focusing on regulatory directions, discussing crypto assets, AI, and prediction markets to see which way the rules are heading.
Summarized in a sentence for easy recall: FOMC looks at money, CFTC looks at rules.
One regulates interest rate expectations, the other sets regulatory directions, both can influence the movement of Bitcoin. Today, instead of guessing rises and falls, let’s talk about what the FOMC minutes actually convey, what the CFTC is discussing, and how we should monitor the market more reliably after the news lands.
First, let's look at the market.
Instead of guessing daily if it will rise or fall, it’s better to change the mindset: clarify what can actually cause significant volatility.
First, let’s talk about the FOMC minutes.
Many people feel the minutes are mysterious; they are actually not that complicated. They are not a rehash of the meeting but provide a more detailed account of how committee members discussed during the meeting at the end of July.
So why does the market still pay attention? Because the post-meeting statement only tells you the final result, the minutes show where the real differences lie.
Who is more afraid of inflation rebounding, who is more worried about employment weakening, who thinks rates are already high enough—these details are the signals the market is truly looking for.
Just like during that July meeting, the final vote was 9 to 3, with three members voting against, advocating for more rate hikes.
So the market’s current dilemma is not just about “when will the rate cut happen,” but how many in the Federal Reserve are still concerned about inflation. As the dollar and U.S. Treasury yield rise, Bitcoin is likely to face short-term pressure.
Ultimately, there are three scenarios:
In a hawkish tone, the market worries more about inflation, expectations for rate cuts are pushed back, the dollar strengthens, and Bitcoin faces pressure;
In a dovish tone, the focus shifts to employment and economic downturn, expectations for rate cuts rise, market sentiment warms, making Bitcoin more likely to find support;
The third and most common scenario is a mixed message from both sides, leaving ambiguity. After seeing the news, the market most likely responds with a “Is that it?” Bitcoin’s price rises and falls briefly before continuing to consolidate.
Regardless of which scenario occurs, what truly determines the short-term trend is never the minutes themselves being “hawkish or dovish,” but how the market digests that information and the final direction of the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk sentiment.
So don’t rush to chase the first candlestick after the news breaks; first, observe whether the price can stabilize, then check if there’s enough capital following up, and only then should you act.
Next, let’s discuss the second variable, the CFTC meeting.
On August 20, the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee met, with three core keywords: crypto assets, AI, and prediction markets.
The biggest fear in trading is regulatory uncertainty—what can be done today might not be possible tomorrow. In such an environment, who dares to enter the market with significant funds?
Therefore, what’s truly worth watching in this meeting is whether regulation can provide the market with a more stable and predictable framework.
These two matters, one governing macro liquidity, the other regulatory direction, sound significant; when it comes to observing the market, it doesn't have to be too complicated.
After the news lands, it ultimately boils down to whether the market accepts it or not.
For instance, if the FOMC is hawkish and Bitcoin drops, don’t rush to short. First, check for volume, whether there are large sell orders following, if it triggers a concentrated liquidation of long positions;
Conversely, if the CFTC emits a positive signal and Bitcoin briefly rises and then falls, don't be quick to say “the bullish news is ineffective.” A lack of price response itself is a kind of reaction.
When it comes to monitoring the market, we have several practical indicators available to AiCoin members that are especially useful in news-driven markets.
Tracking major orders can directly show whether large funds are truly entering the market;
The liquidation heatmap can clarify where concentrated liquidations may occur for both longs and shorts;
Moreover, the chip distribution can show where the cost of holdings is concentrated, making it convenient to find support and resistance levels.
When news comes out, looking at these indicators together is far more useful than fixating on a single candlestick; they can help distinguish between whether the current movement is due to emotional speculation or real capital entering, without the need to toggle back and forth.
Let’s demonstrate how to open the most commonly used chip distribution; the operation is very simple.
[PC Version]
First, go to the indicator page, click on the “Indicators” entry at the top left corner, scroll down to find “Chip Distribution,” and add it to the candlestick display.
Once opened, horizontal chip bars will appear directly on the right side of the candlestick, clearly visible.
[APP Version]
On the far right of the candlestick page, there’s a “Chip” entry; click it to directly open the chip distribution.
If you’re still unsure how to operate, just reach out to customer service, and they will guide you step by step.
Lastly, let’s talk about the new user benefits for Qixi:
Register on Bitget through the designated AiCoin link and complete KYC to contact customer service to register for a 7-day AiCoin PRO membership. The first 20 will also receive platform merchandise, limited quantities available, first come first served.
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After completing registration and verification, reply with the code “BG Qixi New User Gift,” then submit your AiCoin UID and Bitget UID. After customer service verifies it, rewards will be issued according to the rules.
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