BTC breaks through 75,000 reaching a recent high! Is the bull market really here? 1.1 billion liquidations. Bybit teaches you how to read trends.

Thirty years east of the river and thirty years west of the river: BTC now is truly different.

Recently, many people are asking: The recent surge of BTC broke through $75,000 to reach a new recent high, is it just a normal rebound, or is the bull market really back?

This time, it cannot be simply regarded as a normal rebound. The fundamentals, capital flows, and technical aspects of BTC are all strengthening simultaneously.

Of course, the market has no 100% certainty, but this is definitely a much more comfortable position for phased deployment than "waiting until everyone is shouting bull market." The current market sentiment has not yet gone completely crazy, but there has been a profound structural change in the market.
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1. Macroeconomics and Fundamentals: Why has BTC suddenly become stronger? The core is three things

1. Intensified pressure from US Treasuries and global debt, capital embraces "non-dilutable" assets

Recently, the market has turned its attention back to gold and BTC, with the core background being the pressure from US Treasuries and global debt issues. When the market believes that the scale of future currency and debt will continue to expand, capital will seek assets with limited supply that cannot be issued arbitrarily.

The total supply limit of BTC at 21 million coins will not change due to any country stimulating the economy.

Although rising US Treasury yields will temporarily suppress risk assets, in the long term, the larger the debt scale, the easier it is to discuss the allocation value of scarce assets. Will the cash and bonds in hand maintain their purchasing power in the future? This is the core question that large global capital is pondering.

2. Changes in US regulation: Turning from "suppressing crypto" to "paving the way for institutions"

In the past, institutions were hesitant to enter the market due to unclear rules and inadequate custody. Now the situation is fundamentally reversing:

Regulatory bodies like the SEC are pushing for a clearer regulatory framework for crypto assets.

The White House Crypto Summit welcomed heavyweight attendees: SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, Kraken, Nasdaq, NYSE, CME, DTCC and other top institutions participated.

This indicates that the crypto industry is no longer just a game for retail investors and small exchanges; traditional financial giants are seriously studying how to incorporate BTC into their underlying systems. The path to compliance has been cleared, and the infrastructure is in place for pension funds, family offices, and large asset management institutions to enter long-term capital.

3. Leverage liquidation completed, the market is no longer "overvalued"

BlackRock's latest report from a few days ago pointed out that the significant decline in BTC was mainly due to high leverage liquidation and the short-term migration of capital to AI-related assets.

BlackRock's white paper describes the previous 50% drawdown of BTC as a healthy correction of positions and leverage structures, rather than a failure of long-term investment logic.

The report also noted that in specific historical samples, traditional 60/40 portfolios that included 1%-2% BTC saw a significant improvement in risk-adjusted returns. This proves that large asset management institutions still regard BTC as a quality asset that can be incorporated into portfolios, rather than a speculative game that has ended.

2. On-chain chips and leverage liquidation: Massive clearing and chip concentration approaching "critical point"

While the fundamentals are strengthening, the derivatives market and on-chain chips have also undergone a historic structural adjustment:

1. $1.1 billion in massive liquidations over 24 hours, shorts were continuously wiped out

Liquidation data: In the last 24 hours, a total of 130,024 people were liquidated globally, with the total liquidation amount reaching $1.106 billion. Among them, the largest single liquidation occurred in Hyperliquid - BTC-USD, with a single value of $25.1387 million.

“Gambler 0x004E” was completely liquidated: The market's typical short address 0x004E had its $BTC short position fully liquidated. In the past two days, this address attempted 8 times to short $BTC and $ETH, all failed, with cumulative losses reaching $3.28 million.

2. Continuous large net inflows into spot ETFs (updated August 20)

#Bitcoin ETF: 1-day net flow +6,603 $BTC (+$472.2 million); 7-day net flow +11,149 $BTC (+$797.21 million).

#Ethereum ETF: 1-day net flow +78,306 $ETH (+$177.85 million); 7-day net flow +132,276 $ETH (+$300.42 million).

3. Chip concentration rises to 14.8%, the turning point breakout is imminent

1.15 million BTC chips accumulated: On August 5, a single price range of $63,000 accumulated 1.15 million BTC, which resulted from prolonged low volatility and sufficient turnover, a phenomenon extremely rare in history.

Changes in chip concentration: On August 5, the concentration was 13.5%, which skyrocketed to 14.8% by August 10, stepping into the "high risk/high volatility brewing zone" with one foot.

Historical breakout patterns: Chips cannot accumulate infinitely; there must be a winner and a loser. Historical patterns show that: when the chip concentration curve peaks and turns, if BTC's price has been in an upward trend prior, the probability of continuing large upward volatility is greater. The current risk is accumulating, and immense volatility is about to erupt!

3. Technical signals: This is not just a simple bullish candle, but a structural turn towards bullish

Weekly chart: MACD bottom divergence, bearish strength exhausts
The price has repeatedly weakened at low levels, but the MACD has not simultaneously made a new low, forming a typical bottom divergence. This indicates that the efficiency of sellers continuing to dump has significantly declined, with the histogram narrowing from negative values, and DIF and DEA turning upwards, indicating that bearish momentum is basically exhausted.

4-hour chart: EMA bullish arrangement, short-term trend confirmed
EMA10, EMA20, EMA40, EMA60, and EMA120 show a clear bullish arrangement, with prices firmly above the moving averages. The MACD histogram is increasing and volume is also increasing synchronously, representing that real capital is purchasing at higher prices rather than engaging in a volume-less "air pump."

Note: A healthy trend is often not a straight line upward, but involves rising followed by a pullback near EMA20/EMA40 with reduced volume, and then breaking out with increased volume. Only if it can break and hold, is it truly strong.

4. Practical KOL perspective: Investment discipline, positioning strategies, and asset security

Many people originally thought "the bear market won't bottom until October, and it may even drop to 45,000," but the strong surge these past few days confirms that a buy more as it falls discipline and investment style is much more important than predicting precise points:

1. Pyramid "risk position" piling method

Refer to the dynamic adjustments of Into The Crypto Verse on "risk levels":

0.5 - 0.6: Start basic purchases; < 0.49: Weekly purchase amount doubles; < 0.39: quadruples; < 0.29: 8 times.

Practically: The previous risk level was around 0.3, so the current week's purchase amount was directly set to 4 times that of the previous week.

2. 200-week moving average: Historically, each time people say "it's over" has always been a buying point

The vicinity of the 200-week moving average has always been a buying zone (not an exact bottom). Whether it was 2015, 2018 (buying at $3,000), the 2020 COVID-19 crash, or the 2022 breach of the 200/250/300-week moving averages (buying at $15,000-$17,000), every time the market shouted "going to zero/it's over," looking back has always revealed excellent buying points.

3. Political economics and altcoin strategies (BEST rule)

Political economic judgment: The CLARITY Act has been delayed until the middle of the September election year, essentially a political "posture." While WFLI has obtained a banking license and USD1 has become the fifth largest stablecoin, the president's strong push is due to personal company interests, making promotion destined for obstacles. The SEC/CFTC will catch up on regulatory gaps, but short-term momentum is limited.

Altcoin BEST rule: With limited capital, only recognize the four chains with the largest stablecoin flows verified by Visa on-chain data: BNB, Ethereum, Solana, Tron (Tether has over 60% of its flow on Tron). Others like Polygon, XRP, Canton, Hyperliquid, etc., are observed but not adjusted.

5. Is now the best entry point? The key is "phased", not "all in"

From the current structure, the downtrend of BTC has loosened, and the short-term trend has turned bullish, but market sentiment has not gone completely wild yet. The current state is more like: the market has just woken up from ICU, it can walk, but hasn’t started running a marathon yet.

The real question is not "buying at several dollars," but "whether you can hold on when it drops 15%-20% after buying." It is recommended to break down the trading plan into the following three response strategies:

Now is an extremely worthwhile area for positioning, but it is not a region for mindless all-ins.
If it’s long-term investment, spot, phased, low leverage, or even no leverage is the most reasonable posture; if it’s short-term trading, be sure to strictly set stop-losses, and avoid blindly chasing highs at high positions!

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