BTC has surged again.
On August 21, after BTC continuously broke through $75,000, $76,000, and $77,000, it further surged to $79,000 (with a peak of around $79,555).
In just a few days, the market shifted from discussing “can it hold $70,000” to directly entering the question of “is the next stop $80,000?”
The market is changing very quickly. But the faster it rises, the less we should only focus on the price.
What really deserves attention now is:
Is there any new capital coming in above $79,000?
Because after consecutive breakthroughs, what truly determines whether the market can go far is often not the surge, but the first pullback.
01 | $79K has broken through, but the real test has just begun
Previously, BTC fluctuated around $60,000 to $70,000 for a long time, with a considerable amount of chips changing hands during this process.
Now that the price has continuously broken through $75K, $76K, and $77K, and then surged to $79K, it shows that the market is quickly breaking away from the previous fluctuation range.
But after the surge, there is another question: can the original resistance levels become new supports?
If BTC subsequently pulls back near $79K, and the selling pressure does not significantly increase, with the price regaining buying support, then $79K may have a chance to become a new support zone.
Conversely, if it quickly falls back below $79K after the surge (currently it has dropped to about $77,825), and trading volume significantly increases, then we need to be cautious that this surge may just be driven by short-term emotions.
So rather than guessing about $80K now, it’s better to first keep an eye on: Can $79K hold?
02 | Continuous rise, short squeeze may be an important driving force
Another variable that cannot be overlooked in this wave of rise is: short liquidation.
After BTC quickly breaks through key levels, shorts will face stop-losses, reduction of positions, or even forced liquidations.
These actions can turn into buying demand, further pushing prices up.
Thus, it can easily form the following cycle:
BTC rises → shorts close positions → buying increases → BTC continues to rise → more shorts are forced to exit.
This is a typical short squeeze market.
What truly needs attention is: after the shorts are cleared, is there any new capital coming in?
If after liquidation, BTC still maintains a high level, and substantial buy orders continue to appear, then the market might be transitioning from a short squeeze to a genuine capital-driven movement.
If the shorts are cleared and the price quickly falls back (currently a noticeable drop has occurred), then the sustainability of this rise needs to be re-evaluated.
03 | Is there support near $79K? Focus on 4 key data points
After continuous surges, looking at the candlestick charts alone is no longer sufficient.
Over the weekend, we can focus on four types of data:
① Chip Distribution
Check if a new chip accumulation zone has formed near $79K.
② Large Transactions
Check if there are significant large buy orders supporting when retracing to $79K.
③ Liquidation Data
Check if there’s new capital coming in after the short liquidation.
④ Trading Volume
Pay attention to whether there’s increased volume during the surge, decreased volume during the pullback, and whether the volume can keep up when rising again.
These data points together are more valuable than merely focusing on the candlestick chart.
04 | What’s worth watching this weekend is the first pullback
Today is Friday.
As we enter the weekend, the first pullback after the surge to $79K may very well become an important validation of this trend.
If we see: pullback to $79K → declining volume → limited selling pressure → large capital support → another rise
then the value of the surge will significantly increase.
If we see: breaking below $79K → increasing volume drop → increased large sell orders → expanded liquidations
then we need to be cautious that this surge may only be a short-term squeeze.
So there’s no need to rush to predict $80K now; let’s first see if can $79K really hold?
After consecutive surges, the market is entering a new phase
From $70,000 to $75K, $76K, $77K, and then to $79K in the market, the rapid upward movement has obviously changed market sentiment.
But the stronger the market, the less we should just look at the rise.
Next, we should pay close attention to four things:
Can $79K hold?
Is there real support during the pullback?
Is there continued large capital coming in?
After the short liquidation, is there any new capital coming in?
If these signals gradually form a resonance, $79K has a chance to transform from a peak to a new support level.
If the price quickly falls back (currently it has dropped to about $77,825), we need to be cautious:
It may seem like a breakout, but in reality, it was only a fast track squeeze.
So this weekend, rather than guessing whether BTC can reach $80,000, let’s focus on a more practical question:
Can $79,000 hold?
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$79K has surged; can this wave of funds hold?
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