The weekend went as smoothly as expected, but I feel that next week is going to get tense. The most important thing should be NVIDIA's earnings report in the early morning of the 27th Beijing time. Many friends are heavily invested in AI and semiconductors, and NVIDIA's earnings report is basically the spotlight in this field. NVIDIA's earnings not only need to be good but also must significantly exceed expectations for the AI track to continue attracting substantial investment.
The day before NVIDIA's earnings report, there will be the PCE data, which is of great interest to the Federal Reserve. Employment has already begun to weaken. Although the market expects the PCE in July to still be decent, if oil prices continue to rise, then the good data for July will almost be meaningless; inflation in August may continue to rise, and the weakened expectations for interest rate hikes due to lower labor force may be brought up again.
Following that, there will be the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference in two days, which is also the first time Waller will attend since becoming the Federal Reserve Chair. Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have clearly risen, with the 30-year yield reaching the highest position since 2007; the semiconductor index also fell about 5% last week. Therefore, the market will be very attentive to Waller's stance on inflation, economic growth, and the path of interest rates this time.
Lastly, regarding Bitcoin, although there have been two significant fluctuations over the weekend, it has still stabilized around $77,000. Since Monday evening, liquidity has begun to return, and at this time, the trend of bitcoin:native will become more apparent. Whether this rebound can break through $80,000, I think we will see some signs on Monday, mainly looking at trading volume, capital, and ETFs, and also keeping an eye on what actions $MSTR will take.
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