1. Market Review: Why Did the Rebound Occur?
Last night, the overall market was strong, driven by the collective warming of fundamental sentiment:
Employment data surprises: Wednesday's ADP employment data was disappointing, and yesterday's initial jobless claims also fell short of expectations, raising concerns about cooling in the labor market;
Non-farm expectations brewing: Some traders have already bet that tonight's non-farm data may leave the market "greatly disappointed";
Rate cut expectations absorbed: Citigroup believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the meeting in less than two weeks;
Market reaction: Mainstream cryptocurrencies rebounded from lows, and the three major stock indices closed higher simultaneously.
In summary: Weak data → Rate cut bets heat up → Risk assets rebound. If tonight's non-farm data is weak again, this logic may be reinforced.
2. ETH: A "Multiple Choice" Before Key Resistance
Today's focus: Testing the 2535 resistance level.
Overall, still fluctuating between the 2356 – 2535 range, the box pattern has not changed;
Current price is near the 2535 resistance level, which is a dividing line for bulls and bears;
Trading reference:
✅ If the 4-hour close breaks above 2535, or if there is a significant rise on the hourly chart → go long;
⛔ Long position stop loss reference at 2500;
🎯 Mid-term targets sequentially look towards 2715 / 2917 / 3050.
The logic is simple: once the upper edge of the box is effectively broken, it means the range opens, and the upside space will be revalued.
3. SanDisk: High Sell-off Remains the Main Strategy
Currently fluctuating in the 1580 – 1514 range;
The operation still tends to short high (short at near the upper range) is more advantageous;
Special reminder: Today's focus is on non-farm data, it's advised to wait for opportunities after U.S. market opens to act, avoiding the uncertainties brought by data disturbance.
4. Hynix: Direction Unclear, Continue to Observe
The price is fluctuating in the 1232 – 1156 range;
The short-term direction is currently unclear, does not align with a clear trading entry logic;
Operation suggestion: Continue to observe, wait for the range selection before intervening, avoid rushing and being reckless.
5. Tonight's Focus: Non-farm Data
The biggest variable during the day is the evening non-farm payroll data, which will directly test whether the current interest rate cut expectations are valid.
If the data is significantly below expectations → Rate cut bets strengthen, risk assets (ETH, indices) are expected to rise further;
If the data is unexpectedly strong → Expectations may be dashed, be wary of the rebound trend retracting.
Advice for traders: Control positions before the non-farm release, set stop losses, and wait for direction confirmation after the data is released before decisively following up.
If you want to know more details and specific operations, see you in the live broadcast tonight, we will analyze the market live and watch candlesticks to discuss logic.
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