Gold has increased again.
After a previous decline from high levels, spot gold has strengthened again, breaking through $4470 per ounce on September 3, with an intraday increase close to 2%, and at certain times it further reached above $4477.
What's more noteworthy is:
As gold rises, Bitcoin has also broken through $80,000 again.
One is a traditional safe-haven asset, and the other is a high-volatility risk asset.
According to past market logic, the two often represent entirely different fund sentiments.
However, now, gold and BTC have shown a rare synchronized rebound.
This reflects not merely a simple “increase in safe-haven sentiment,” but rather that the market is simultaneously trading two expectations:
Geopolitical risks still exist + The Federal Reserve's policy expectations are beginning to shift.
01｜Why has gold suddenly strengthened again?
Previously, gold quickly retreated from near $4640—$4700, entering the $4330—$4400 range.
At that time, the market was mainly trading on:
Dollar strengthening + Rising U.S. Treasury yields + Increasing interest rate hike expectations.
For gold, the simultaneous appearance of these three factors was unfriendly.
Gold itself does not generate interest.
When U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, and funds are naturally more likely to flow into dollar assets that can provide returns.
However, after September 3, market expectations suddenly changed.
With Federal Reserve officials releasing relatively dovish policy signals, the market began to lower concerns about further rate hikes.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar retreated from previous highs.
Thus, gold welcomed a familiar upward logic:
Decrease in rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields drop → Dollar weakens → Lower holding cost for gold → Gold prices gain support.
Therefore, the primary driving force behind this rebound in gold was not a sudden influx of safe-haven buying.
Instead, it was:
A change in interest rate expectations.
02｜What truly drives gold's rebound is the “yield turning point”
If we only look at gold prices, it's easy to attribute this round of increases to geopolitical risks.
But from a funding pricing perspective, the U.S. Treasury yields are what truly deserve attention.
Gold has a strong inverse relationship with real interest rates over the long term.
Simply put:
The higher the yield → The higher the opportunity cost of holding gold → Gold comes under pressure.
Conversely:
The lower the yield → The lower the opportunity cost of gold → Increased allocation demand.
Therefore, when the market begins to bet that the Fed's policy will not tighten further, gold will be the first to find support.
This also explains why:
This time gold's rise appears to be a safe-haven rally, but much of it is really about rate trading.
03｜The Federal Reserve's change in attitude is reshaping market pricing
Previously, one of the biggest concerns in the market was that rising oil prices could reignite inflation.
If inflation heats up again, the Federal Reserve may not only delay rate cuts but could even release more hawkish policy signals.
This was also a significant reason for the simultaneous pressure on BTC and gold earlier.
But recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have prompted the market to reassess this logic.
In particular, the signals from Christopher Waller have been relatively dovish, leading to a noticeable decline in concerns about further rate hikes.
Consequently, the market began to trade anew:
Weakening employment + Policies no longer tightening further → Declining rate pressure → Dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreat → Gold and risk assets gain breathing room simultaneously.
This also explains why gold and BTC rebounded at the same time.
04｜Why did gold and BTC rise simultaneously?
This is the most interesting aspect of the current market.
In traditional logic:
Gold rising = Increase in safe-haven sentiment.
And:
BTC rising = Increase in risk appetite.
These two seem to contradict each other.
Yet now there is:
Gold rising + BTC rising + U.S. stocks rising.
This indicates the market may be transitioning from “singular safe-haven” to:
A broad-based asset rally under improved liquidity expectations.
In other words, funds are not simply fleeing risk.
Instead, they are betting on:
After the decline in rate pressure, different types of assets will all have the opportunity to be reallocated.
Gold benefits from:
Declining yields + Weakening dollar + Geopolitical risks.
BTC benefits from:
Improved liquidity expectations + ETF capital inflow + Recovery of risk appetite.
The logic for their increases is different, but both point to the same macro variable:
Interest rate expectations.
05｜But gold still retains its safe-haven properties
This does not mean that geopolitical risks have been completely ignored by the market.
The U.S.-Iran situation remains a significant uncertainty for the current market.
Especially if oil prices continue to remain high, gold's safe-haven properties will still receive support.
There exists a very subtle market structure here:
Geopolitical risks increase gold’s safe-haven demand;
Declining interest rate expectations reduce the holding cost of gold.
With both factors present, a very favorable combination for gold prices is formed.
Thus, this round of gold rebounds cannot be simply attributed to a single event.
A more accurate understanding is:
Safe-haven demand + Improved interest rate expectations, jointly drive gold prices to strengthen again.
06｜But gold is now also facing a critical test
$4470—$4500 is the area that needs to be closely monitored next.
If gold can effectively stabilize above $4500 and challenge $4550 or even the previous highs, it would mean the current adjustment may have essentially completed.
However, if gold prices face obvious resistance near $4500 while U.S. Treasury yields rise again, then gold still risks a pullback.
It is particularly important to be cautious of:
Rising oil prices while the Federal Reserve turns hawkish again.
In this scenario, while geopolitical risks may support gold's safe-haven properties, rising interest rates could exert reverse pressure.
Gold may enter a period of violent fluctuation once again.
07｜Three variables to truly watch next
① U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Data
This is an important variable for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy path.
If employment continues to weaken:
Weak employment → Lower probability of rate hikes → Yields fall → Gold gains support.
At the same time, BTC may also benefit from improved liquidity expectations.
But if employment is significantly stronger than expected:
High rates maintained longer → Yields rebound → Both gold and BTC may face pressure.
② U.S. Treasury Yields
This is currently one of the most direct observation indicators for gold.
If yields continue to decline, the probability of gold breaking through $4500 will further increase.
Conversely, if yields rise rapidly again, gold prices may come under short-term pressure once more.
So instead of staring at the gold candlestick every day, it's better to observe:
Gold + U.S. Treasury yields.
The changes in both often hold more significance than looking at gold prices alone.
③ U.S.-Iran Situation and Oil Prices
If the geopolitical situation continues to escalate:
Supply risks → Rising oil prices → Increased safe-haven demand.
Gold may continue to receive support.
However, if oil prices persistently rise to higher levels, it could reignite inflation concerns, thus pushing up interest rate expectations.
Therefore, oil prices have a dual effect on gold:
Short-term benefits for safe-haven; excessive rise could trigger renewed rate pressures.
This is also one of the biggest contradictions in the market moving forward.
Finally
This time when gold broke through $4470, what truly deserves attention is not how much the gold price has increased.
But rather:
Gold and BTC are both rising simultaneously.
This means the current market can no longer simply be explained by “safe-haven mode” or “risk appetite mode.”
A more accurate state might be:
Geopolitical risks support gold, improved interest rate expectations support both gold and BTC, while ETF capital inflow further strengthens risk appetite in the crypto market.
So what is truly worth monitoring next is whether this “synchronized rise of gold and BTC” can be sustained.
If:
Yields continue to fall + The Federal Reserve remains dovish + Geopolitical risks do not spiral out of control
Then gold and BTC may continue to enjoy allocation demand driven by macro improvements.
But if:
Oil prices keep soaring + Inflation heats up again + The Federal Reserve turns hawkish again
Then this rebound may face another test.
Gold's next key level to watch is $4500.
BTC's next key level to watch is $82,000—$83,000.
And what truly decides whether both can continue to rise remains:
The Federal Reserve, yields, and oil prices.
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