Written before tonight's non-farm data update
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. non-farm employment data for August will be released. Given the current market expectations, the non-farm data should be good, as the unemployment rate has not increased, and last month's negative non-farm employment data has brought positive expectations this month. Although the annual wage growth rate has decreased, the monthly rate has increased, which also indicates that the current U.S. economy is still doing well.
However, at this time, good data may not necessarily be a good thing, because the market hopes to suppress the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations. Good non-farm data indicates a strong U.S. economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can continue its current stance. Although I believe there will be no rate hike in September, good non-farm data may likely increase the likelihood of a rate hike, and I wonder if the market will feel uneasy again.
Last month's non-farm data was a sad event turned festive, while this month's non-farm data may turn a festive event into a sad one, as last month's poor employment figures led the market to reduce the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. But if this month's data is good, it may revert back.
Of course, the data that the market expects may not necessarily be accurate. Generally speaking, if the non-farm data is good, it may have a negative effect on market sentiment, but if the non-farm data is poor, it may actually be beneficial for the market.
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