Yesterday, Bitcoin quickly rebounded after a pullback near 76,000, reaching as high as about 82,800, breaking through the previous upper boundary of 81,500.
However, after the peak, the price fell again; at present, this wave of pullback does not appear strong.
So at this stage, it is more appropriate to understand the market as demanding digestion after a big rise, rather than a trend reversal.
From the daily perspective, after the previous rise, Bitcoin has already experienced a period of sideways consolidation. Yesterday's big bullish candle pulled the price back above the volatility range, but the biggest shortcoming now is that, although the price broke through 81,500, it has not formed a continuous closing confirmation.
Therefore, what really needs to be observed next is not how much this short-term pullback can fall, but whether it can stand firmly above 81,500 after the pullback.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solutions, and market practical tips, scan the code to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,enter the community to get strategies!
Short-term: 80,600 is key support
The hourly chart has shown a pullback after a peak, and the MACD has also begun to show signs of a dead cross, indicating that there is a certain need for repair in the short-term indicators.
However, the pullback on the hourly chart cannot yet be defined as a bearish market.
Currently, first focus on the area around 80,800, while more important support is 80,600.
If effective support can form near 80,600, and the price rebounds, then this pullback would be considered a normal test after the breakthrough.
Even if it further falls below 80,600, do not directly interpret it as a trend reversal; we still need to continue observing the support at the integer mark of 80,000 and around 79,400.
In other words:
If 80,600 holds, there is still a chance for a short-term rebound; if it falls further, a reassessment of the breakout structure is required.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solutions, and market practical tips, scan the code to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,enter the community to get strategies!
4-hour: Pullback after breakthrough, not confirmed failure
The 4-hour level is currently the most worthy of attention.
Yesterday's big bullish candle successfully broke through 81,500 and reached as high as about 82,800, but then pulled back, and the second K-line did not continue to hold above 81,500.
This indicates that the breakthrough has not yet been fully confirmed.
On the other hand, the lows of the price pullback are still rising, and the retracement is not large, so it cannot be directly defined as a breakout failure.
A more accurate judgment now is:
Testing pullback is underway after the breakout.
If 80,600 can gain support, and the price returns above 81,500, then the previous upper boundary of volatility has a chance to complete the “pressure turns to support.”Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solutions, and market practical tips, scan the code to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,enter the community to get strategies!
Three Resistance Levels Above
The resistance above is currently very clear:
81,500 → 82,300 → 82,800
Among them, 81,500 is the first important level, 82,300 is further resistance, and 82,800 is the most critical position currently.
Especially at 82,800, if it can truly break through and hold, then the upper space of the market will further open up.
Until there is no breakthrough at 82,800, it is still too early to discuss 90,000 or even 100,000.
Indicators: Long-term still biased towards bullish
From the moving averages, currently, aside from the pressure near the 360-day moving average, the other main moving averages still maintain an upward trend overall.
Regarding the Bollinger Bands, both the hourly and 4-hour lines have undergone rapid expansion, and are currently in a consolidation phase of digestion after the expansion.
In terms of MACD, pullback signals have started to appear on the hourly chart, but the 4-hour remains above the zero axis, while the daily quickly shifted from a death cross to a golden cross.
DMI also shows that the long-term direction is still bullish, but the short-term momentum in the hourly chart is already quite sufficient and needs some repair.
RSI indicates that the cost-effectiveness for chasing upward in the short-term has decreased, making it more suitable to wait and observe the acceptance situation after the pullback.
Therefore, combined with multiple indicators, we are currently closer to:
Short-term digestion, medium-term biased towards bullish, long-term trend has not been damaged.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solutions, and market practical tips, scan the code to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,enter the community to get strategies!
What’s Next?
The most important thing in the current market is not to guess whether it will rise or fall, but to wait for key positions to provide answers.
Focus on the downside:
80,600 → 80,000 → 79,200
Focus on the upside:
81,500 → 82,300 → 82,800
If support can be gained near 80,600 during the pullback, and it returns to 81,500, then the breakout structure has a chance to continue.
If it can break through 82,300 and finally hold 82,800, then the market will truly open up further upward space.
So the current core thinking is very simple:
First observe the pullback, then observe the acceptance; if support is effective, continue to pay attention to rebounds; only a breakout of 82,800 truly confirms the further opening of upper space.
At this stage, do not panic too much due to the pullback after the peak, nor blindly chase the rise due to short-term rebounds.
The market is currently still in the digestion phase after a big rise, and what truly matters is observing whether this pullback can confirm the previous breakout position.
Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solutions, and market practical tips, scan the code to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,enter the community to get strategies!
Disclaimer: This article represents only the personal views of the author and does not represent the position and views of this platform. This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone. Any disputes between users and authors are unrelated to this platform. If the articles or images on the webpage involve infringement, please provide relevant proof of rights and identity documents and send an email to support@aicoin.com. The relevant staff of this platform will conduct an investigation.