Waller's comment "let's wait for another meeting" sees Bitcoin rise over 6% in a single day, returning to $80,000.
Written by: Charles Lloyd Bovaird II, Forbes
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Bitcoin saw a significant rebound on September 3, once again surpassing $80,000 during the day with an increase of over 6%. The driving force behind the market was not on-chain data or sudden news from any exchange, but rather the dovish remarks made by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, which swiftly reshaped market pricing for the upcoming September FOMC meeting.
According to multiple market sources for cross-verification, Bitcoin oscillated around $77,200 in the early hours of trading, with the lowest point during the day coming close to the range of $76,400 to $77,200. After Waller's speech, the price surged almost in a straight line, peaking at about $80,500 to $81,300, increasing over $2,400 from the day’s low. Near the close, quotes mostly fell within the range of $80,500 to $81,500. Ethereum rose about 5%, trading above $2,500; Solana increased nearly 6%, re-establishing itself above $100; XRP led mainstream coins with a daily increase of nearly 9%. The total market capitalization of crypto assets rebounded to approximately $2.82 trillion.
The situation for spot Bitcoin ETFs also showed improvement. The previous day saw a net inflow of about $101.1 million, mainly contributed by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust. This contrasts with previous periods of outflows, indicating that the buying interest in U.S.-listed products did not vanish during the rebound.
Waller clearly stated during a Reuters event in Washington that if data published over the next two weeks continues to show easing price pressures, he leans towards keeping the federal funds rate target unchanged at the meeting from September 15 to 16. He noted that the annualized growth rate of core inflation that the Fed monitors has dropped from 4.76% in February to 3.05% in July, describing this decline as "encouraging," and made a remark quickly seized by the market—"give inflation a chance to cool, we can wait for another meeting." He also mentioned that energy prices and tariffs currently do not constitute major sources of persistent inflation pressure.
The significance of this statement lies in the fact that it directly countered the trading logic from the previous week. Since the end of August, the situation in the Middle East had escalated, and U.S. actions regarding Iran had driven oil prices up, rekindling concerns about inflation rebounding, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate hikes in September, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries briefly approaching 4.8%, while Bitcoin fell to around $76,000. After Waller's speech, CME FedWatch showed that the implied probability of a rate hike in September dropped by about 12 percentage points to around 55%, with some estimates even observing a range of 48% to 55%. The U.S. dollar index fell approximately 0.5%, Treasury yields declined, and gold rose about 2.3%. Risk assets benefited simultaneously, with the S&P 500 rising about 1.1% and the Nasdaq increasing about 1.6%.
Cryptocurrency-related U.S. stocks reacted even more strongly. MicroStrategy (now commonly referred to as Strategy, ticker MSTR) surged over 13% that day. The company had just ended a pause of about 10 weeks and began accumulating Bitcoin again. Coinbase (COIN) rose about 11%. Among mining stocks, HIVE increased about 13%, MARA rose over 10%, and others like CleanSpark also followed suit. When spot prices move a little, stocks with higher leverage often amplify the movement first.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin effectively stood above approximately $78,670, with traders beginning to view this level as short-term support. The 200-period exponential moving average still hovered around $73,600 and remained upward in momentum, indicating that the medium-term structure had not deteriorated. Some institutions also pointed out that the 50-week moving average was approximately $81,041 at the time, and the price briefly touched above this line for the first time since mid-May. There was a significant liquidation of shorts in the derivatives market, with the scale of liquidations over 24 hours reaching about $510 million, and shorts accounting for over 80%. The rapid price movement prompted short covering, which further accelerated the upward rally.
The on-chain and spot structures were not overwhelmingly strong. At the beginning of the rebound, some analysts noted an increase in inflows to exchanges, a considerable outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs on certain trading days, and a slowdown in the growth of stablecoin supply, indicating that the spot buying was not as clean as the price performance suggested. Institutions like Bitfinex previously anchored the average cost of active investors around $76,350, and the buying support at this level after it was reached was one of the micro foundations for this rebound.
The market did not interpret a single day's increase as a complete trend reversal. Oil prices remain high, and risks in the Middle East have not disappeared. If oil prices surge further or inflation data unexpectedly rises, pricing for rate hikes can quickly revert to previous levels. Friday’s non-farm payroll, along with the upcoming CPI/PCE data, will be crucial in determining whether Waller’s "wait for another meeting" can hold up. September tends to be weak for Bitcoin historically, with long-term average returns being negative, and seasonality itself may lead some capital to remain cautious.
Zooming out, this round of rebound that began in mid to late August was not solely supported by one speech. The U.S. Treasury's announcement to expand long-term government bond repurchases, regulatory progress surrounding the Clarity Act and other legislation, and some institutions restarting purchases, all contributed to providing a liquidity narrative to the market. Waller's comments seemed to consolidate the already existing expectations of "liquidity improvement" and realized them concentrically within a day.
For traders, the $80,000 level has once again become a dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding the area around $78,700 is crucial, with resistance identified at $81,300 to $81,800 above; if the data refutes the dovish logic, the market will re-evaluate the cost zone of $76,400 to $77,600. A single day's 6% increase is enough to rewrite short-term sentiment, but not enough to single-handedly define the next phase's direction. The true determinants will still be the inflation and employment numbers over the next two weeks.
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