Jiangye Guance | Non-farm roller coaster BTC fell from 82280 to 78660! The bulls were collectively buried, after a big rise there is a correction adjustment, with the main focus on high short positions for the rebound.

Brothers, in the journey of the jianghu, distance is not feared, and we meet true friends along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

⚠️ The following is only a technical logic analysis of the market, for communication and reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile; contracts must strictly control positions and set stop losses.

Last night, the non-farm payrolls came out, and the market experienced a typical roller coaster ride: Bitcoin first surged to 82280, just a step away from the weekly high of 82800, and then quickly plunged to a low of 78660, with a daily fluctuation of nearly 4000 points; Ethereum retraced from the high of 2547 to 2430; gold plummeted from 4514 to 4370. A large amount of capital that chased long positions in the range of 80000 to 82000 was directly trapped at the ceiling.

Today is the weekend; the market has entered a phase of adjustment after the significant rise. The core judgment is very clear: The large-level bullish trend has not completely ended, but the short-term upward momentum has clearly weakened, and it is no longer suitable to chase long positions at high levels. The operation should focus on shorting at rebound highs and lightly buying at key support levels on pullbacks. For real-time changes in the market, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Three lines & safeW jyx9188

1. Non-Farm Review: The Data is Just a Trigger; The Real Cause of the Decline is the Concentrated Exit of Profits

First, let's clarify the logic of last night's market.

After the non-farm data was released, the market's first reaction was a spike - Bitcoin jumped directly to 82280, and Ethereum touched 2547. But it quickly reversed and plummeted. The reason is not that the data itself is poor, but rather the position is too high.

The area between 82000 and 83000 is at the 500-day moving average position, which is also a wall of selling pressure from old holders. About 1.05 million BTC are stuck at this level waiting to offload. When the price surged into this area, the profits from earlier purchases at 77000, the short-term longs that chased high above 80000, and the liquidation positions all concentrated to exit, directly smashing the price down.

The non-farm payrolls were just a trigger; the real cause of the decline was the concentrated profit-taking at high positions + the chain reaction of forced stop losses from chasing longs.

2. Logic of Non-Farm Impact on Gold: Don't Just Look at One Number

Here, I want to specifically talk about the impact of non-farm payrolls on gold, because many family members only look at the increase in employment numbers, which is not enough.

Gold itself does not produce interest, and the pricing chain in the market is: Non-farm data → Fed policy expectations → US Treasury yield / US dollar → Gold. Strong non-farm data leads to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations, while yields and the dollar strengthen, putting pressure on gold; weak non-farm data raises interest rate cut expectations, while yields and the dollar weaken, providing support for gold.

But this is not a mechanical "strong non-farm = gold declines, weak non-farm = gold rises". The market is trading on expectations, and three key details really need to be observed:

1. Is the job increase strong, or "stronger than expected"?

     Meeting expectations has limited impact, while significantly deviating from expectations will trigger a repricing.

2. Average hourly wage - the inflation variable behind employment.

     Employment looks at the economy, wages look at inflation; the two combined can determine the Fed's next steps.

3. Previous value revision - a frequently overlooked variable.

     If this month's data is good but the previous two months have been significantly revised down, it indicates that previous job growth was overestimated, and the market will have a second reaction.

Therefore, the first wave of fluctuations from non-farm data does not necessarily represent the final direction, especially after weekend liquidity decreases, where short-term fluctuations can be more easily magnified. Moving forward, closely monitor three lines: US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the market's repricing of the Fed. For real-time changes in the market, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Three lines & safeW jyx9188

3. BTC Market Breakdown: Daily Close is Bearish; Short-Term Upward Pace Has Been Interrupted

15-Minute Small Cycle

• TD Up:4

  from the low of 79383, a slight rebound started, and the upward count has progressed to 4

• Bollinger Bands: Upper band 79712, Middle band 79833, Lower band 79591. The price is operating near the lower Bollinger band at 79560, showing weak fluctuations

• MACD: DIF‑21.72 crosses above DEA‑26.02 – a golden cross, red column 8.59, indicating weak rebound momentum in the short term

• KDJ: K49.89, J48.09, neutral and slightly bearish, with no clear direction

1-Hour Large Cycle

• TD Down:1

  starting a downward count after reaching the high of 82300 (TD Up9 peaked), marking the official initiation of a pullback sequence

• Bollinger Bands: Upper band 80127, Middle band 81637, Lower band 78617. The price is operating above the lower Bollinger band at 79559

• MACD: DIF‑133.94, DEA‑37.19, green column ‑193.50, green column continues to expand, indicating strong bearish momentum at the 1-hour level

• KDJ: K66.94, J93.92, J value is high, indicating short-term rebound repair demand

BTC Technical Conclusion

The daily line has closed with a bearish candle, ending the consecutive upward fluctuations; the 4-hour timeframe has broken below the short-term moving average, and the market has entered a phase of fluctuating adjustments. The 1-hour TD Down1 has just started, with MACD's green column expanding, indicating that bearish momentum dominates in the short term. However, the triple bottom structure at 77000 remains, and the large-level bullish trend has not completely ended; this round is merely a correction after a significant increase, not a trend reversal.

Key levels: Resistance 80127 (1-hour upper Bollinger band) → 80400‑81000 → 81550 (bull-bear watershed); Support 78800 → 78300 (key support, breaking below weakens the current rebound structure) → 77000 (triple bottom).

4. ETH Market Breakdown: High-Level Adjustments; 2444 is the Mid-Cycle Lifeline

15-Minute Small Cycle

• TD Down:5

  starting a downward count from the high of 2463.90, progressing to the 5th number; small-level bearish count continues

• Bollinger Bands: Upper band 2451.76, Middle band 2454.67, Lower band 2448.84. The Bollinger Bands are extremely narrow, and the price is grinding near 2451

• MACD: DIF‑0.92, DEA‑1.04, red column 0.24, almost at zero; both bullish and bearish momentum are weak

• KDJ: K35.71, J25.75, slightly weak

1-Hour Large Cycle

• TD Up:1

  starting a rebound from the low of 2289.91, upward count is only at 1, but the price has already retraced from the high of 2547

• Bollinger Bands: Upper band 2481.49, Middle band 2546.23, Lower band 2416.75. The price is operating above the lower Bollinger band at 2450

• MACD: DIF‑7.28, DEA‑0.94, green column ‑12.67, 1-hour bearish momentum is being released

• KDJ: K33.49, J49.45, rebounding from a low position, indicating oversold rebound demand

ETH Technical Conclusion

The 4-hour adjustment cycle has only reached the midpoint, and there is still space for bottom reversal signals. The price is oscillating tightly around the short-term support level of 2444, which is a crucial lifeline for the current mid-cycle; once this level is lost, the pullback space will be further enlarged. The price continues to be pressured below 2470 on the 1-hour chart, and the original support has turned into strong resistance; MACD operates below the zero line, clearly indicating a bearish backdrop. Although KDJ's golden cross has generated a rebound, the trading volume has not effectively expanded, representing a typical weak rebound that lacks strength for further upward movement.

Key levels: Resistance 2470 → 2488‑2510 → 2538 (bull-bear watershed, stabilizing above invalidates the bearish view); Support 2444 (lifeline) → 2430 → 2395 (key support; breaking below weakens the current rebound) → 2360.

5. Gold XAU Market Breakdown: Non-Farms Create Deep Pits, Weak Recovery After Overselling

15-Minute Small Cycle

• TD Down:3

  starting a downward count from the high of 4451.71, progressing to the 3rd number

• Bollinger Bands: Upper band 4436.53, Middle band 4440.37, Lower band 4432.69. Extremely narrow, grinding in a small range

• MACD: DIF 0.86, DEA 0.54, red column 0.65, weak rebound

• KDJ: K63.96, J55.18, neutral

1-Hour Large Cycle

• TD Up:3

  starting a rebound from the low of 4370, the upward count progresses to the 3rd number

• Bollinger Bands: Upper band 4442.43, Middle band 4487.31, Lower band 4397.54. The price is operating below the middle Bollinger band at 4438

• MACD: DIF‑5.72 crosses above DEA‑5.87 - a golden cross, red column 0.30, just crossed but the red column is extremely weak

• KDJ: K75.04, J92.86, J value is high, indicating short-term pullback pressure

Gold Technical Conclusion

Influenced by the non-farm payrolls, the price dropped from 4514 to 4370, a decline of over 140 points, and is currently in a weak recovery phase after overselling. The 1-hour MACD has just produced a golden cross but the red column is extremely weak, and the KDJ J value has risen significantly, indicating insufficient rebound momentum. The resistance above is 4442 → 4487 (middle Bollinger band) → 4514 (previous high); support below is 4397 → 4370 (previous low). The large cycle is biased toward bearish fluctuations, so the focus should be on shorting at high rebounds and lightly buying at support levels for a rebound. For real-time changes in the market, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Three lines & safeW jyx9188

6. Comprehensive Conclusion of the Three Varieties' Resonance

Table

Core Conclusions:

1. All three varieties have synchronized into a pullback adjustment phase after a significant rise

   with short-term upward momentum significantly weakened, and it is no longer suitable to chase long positions at high levels.

2. The large-level bullish trend has not completely ended

   as the triple bottom at BTC 77000 still exists, and ETF funds are still flowing in; this round of pullback is a correction, not a reversal.

3. Liquidity is poor over the weekend, making the market prone to narrow grinding and pin bars

   so avoid frequent trading and wait for key levels to take action.

4. Main operational thought: focus on shorting at rebound highs and lightly buying at key support levels.

     All positions should strictly set stop losses and avoid holding positions.

7. Weekend Practical Strategy

BTC Operations

Short (Main Thought)

• Short légère in the rebound range of 79800‑80300, with a stop loss at 80600, target 79300 → 78800, if it breaks, look for 78300 → 77800

• Rebound in the 80400‑81000 range is a stronger resistance area, can add to short if it consolidates, stop loss at 81550, target 79400 → 78950

• Supplement: If it holds above 81550 on the 4-hour, then the bearish plan will be invalidated, and the market will re-test previous highs

Long (only at support levels with light positions)

• If it stabilizes in the 78700‑78800 range, collect K lines to stop the decline, light positions to bet on rebounds, stop loss at 78300, target 79800 → 80300

• If it deeply retraces near 78300, which is key support, can add to long if it stabilizes, stop loss at 77900, target 80000

• If it breaks below 78300, give up the long position idea, the current rebound structure will weaken

ETH Operations

Short (Main Thought)

• In the rebound 2460‑2490 range, consolidate, light positions to short, stop loss at 2510, target 2430 → 2400, if it breaks, look for 2360

• In the 2485‑2508 range, which is a stronger resistance area, can consolidate on a short if it remains in this range, stop loss at 2538, target 2452 → 2433

• Reference: Can directly short with light positions near 2453, target 2413, with a defense of 30 points

• Supplement: If it holds above 2538 on the 4-hour, the bearish plan will be invalidated, and the bulls will restart their attack

Long (only at support levels with light positions)

• If it stabilizes in the 2430‑2444 range (2444 is the mid-cycle lifeline), light positions for short betting on rebounds, stop loss at 2420, target 2470 → 2488

• If it deeply retraces near 2395, which is key support, can add to long if it stabilizes, stop loss at 2380, target 2450 → 2470

• If it breaks below 2395, give up the long position, and the current rebound will weaken

Gold XAU Operations

Short (Main Thought)

• In the rebound 4460‑4487 range (1-hour middle Bollinger band pressure), light positions to short, stop loss at 4500, target 4430 → 4400, if it breaks, look for 4370

• In the rebound 4510‑4515 near previous highs, can add to short, stop loss at 4530, target 4460 → 4430

Long (only support levels in the ultra-short term)

• If it stabilizes in the 4397‑4400 range, light positions for betting on rebounds, stop loss at 4380, target 4440 → 4460, fast in and out

• In a large cycle biased toward bearishness, do not cling to long positions

8. Summary of Key Levels

Table

Weekend Summary: Non-farm roller coaster, BTC dropped from 82280 to 78660, with a large number of longs trapped; all three varieties have synchronized into a pullback adjustment phase after a significant rise. The large-level bullish trend has not ended, but short-term upward momentum is fading, and do not chase longs at high levels. In terms of operations, focus on shorting at rebound highs: BTC 79800‑80300 short, ETH 2460‑2490 short, gold 4460‑4487 short; lightly buy at key support levels: BTC 78700‑78800 long, ETH 2430‑2444 long, gold 4397‑4400 long. Weekend liquidity is poor, so make light trades, strictly adhere to stop losses, and avoid frequent trades.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is only a logical deduction of the market's technical analysis, for reference and communication only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile; contract trading carries extremely high risks. Please trade rationally, strictly control your positions, set your own stop losses, and any profits or losses are your own responsibility.

Thank you for the trust and companionship of all family members. The market changes rapidly, and steady compounding is the long-term approach. I am Jiang Ye, see you next time.

For real-time changes in the market, feel free to communicate and follow up together. Three lines & safeW jyx9188

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