Vlad Tenev believes that crypto event contracts are about to replicate the story of Robinhood's impact on Wall Street trading commissions, seizing a piece of the sports betting market.
Written by: Jose
Translated by: Chopper, Foresight News
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev stated that cryptocurrency-related categories are taking "an disproportionately high share" in Robinhood’s prediction market business. He anticipates that within a few years, the market share for sports categories will decline at least in part. Robinhood's event contract revenue surged more than 10 times year-on-year in Q2 2026, reaching $156 million. Just in August, the number of contract trades reached 4.7 billion, about 15 times the trading volume in August 2025.
Tenev stated that crypto event contracts are about to replicate Robinhood's story of impacting Wall Street trading commissions, seizing a piece of the sports betting market. In an interview on CNBC's "Mad Money" with Jim Cramer, Tenev mentioned that cryptocurrency-related contracts have already taken a substantial share in Robinhood's prediction market business. He predicts that in a few years, sports betting will become a niche category within that business.
Prediction markets, also known as event contracts, allow users to bet on the outcomes of events with yes/no trades—such as Federal Reserve rate decisions, elections, or soccer matches, which is vastly different from betting on traditional sports betting platforms. These trades are classified by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as derivatives, with the CFTC being responsible for monitoring futures and options. Tenev uses this classification to argue that this is not just repackaged pure gambling.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev
"We have already seen categories like crypto take a significant share of the prediction market," Tenev told Jim Cramer, "I believe that in a few years, the share of sports categories will become a minority, similar to the pattern of active trading businesses on large platforms."
He described sports contracts as a "wedge product" that could leverage the entire business. "Sports are a great customer acquisition tool, helping the platform build liquidity, attract users, and establish markets," he said, "but the industry’s expansion will far exceed sports events."
Relevant data supports the business shift, but the timeline is Tenev's own prediction. In Q2 2026, Robinhood's event contract revenue increased to $156 million, making the prediction market the company's fastest-growing business line, while cryptocurrency spot trading revenue declined during the same period. In August alone, the number of trades in prediction markets reached 4.7 billion, 15 times the trading volume from the same period last year.
Robinhood's event contract business is built on the Kalshi Exchange. Kalshi won a legal battle against the CFTC to launch election-related event contracts. Subsequently, Robinhood launched a joint venture platform, Rothera, established in collaboration with trading firm Susquehanna, having received a CFTC license, completing tests during this year's World Cup. This month, Robinhood furthered its collaboration with Crypto.com and its prediction market subsidiary OG.com, adding a third trading clearing settlement partner.
Competition in the space is intensifying. CME, Coinbase, and a number of decentralized platforms are vying for event contract traders. Even before Wall Street brokers entered the fray, native crypto platforms like Polymarket had already ignited the event contract space.
Tenev views all of this, whether it's sports or cryptocurrency contracts, as a bet on ownership.
"We believe ownership is critical—not only because holders of assets can benefit from them, but a society that possesses more high-quality financial assets is inherently more stable." He uses this same rhetoric to explain Robinhood's retirement account 3% additional benefit. (Note: By opening a Robinhood Gold membership, users who deposit funds into their personal retirement accounts will receive an additional 3% subsidy on the deposited amount from Robinhood.)
Crypto contracts perfectly align with this concept as they can turn personal opinions into trades. Tenev cites the U.S. "CLARITY Act" as an example: "With prediction markets, you can directly monetize your opinions and market insights. If you have your own judgments about legislative proposals or the 'CLARITY Act,' we have corresponding trading markets."
But not everyone in Washington supports this view, especially the model of "any event can open a trading market," which sounds to many like "allowing betting on anything."
Since January of this year, lawmakers have submitted more than a dozen bills targeting prediction markets, among which the "PREDICT Act" aims to prohibit Congressional members and senior officials from trading event contracts linked to political events. Critics argue that placing sports and political betting products alongside retirement accounts on the same platform blurs the lines between investing and gambling, and regulators are still working to clarify this contradiction.
Tenev is not waiting for the dust to settle on this regulatory debate. According to his estimates, within just a few years, the proportion of sports contracts will decline to at least a minority in Robinhood's event contract business.
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