As HYPE approaches 100 dollars, the most common mistake in the market is translating the phrase "planning to enter the United States" directly to "U.S. revenue is already in hand."
From September 16 to 21, HYPE's UTC daily closing price rose from 78.23 dollars to 94.05 dollars, increasing about 20% over five days. This price action cannot be solely attributed to the same news, but at least indicates: when most people begin discussing the U.S. market, the price has already traded part of the future.
This future is not entirely baseless.
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, has officially announced plans to launch on-chain perpetual futures for eligible U.S. customers starting with Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market. In the proposed structure, Bitnomial is responsible for creating, operating the market, and clearing settlements, while NinjaTrader Clearing will handle customer accounts. Order matching and recording will operate on Hyperliquid's public blockchain.
However, there is one small detail at the end of the announcement that cannot be overlooked: the relevant on-chain perpetual futures still require regulatory approval.
So, this is not "U.S. customers have fully entered Hyperliquid," but rather Payward is building a regulated access channel.
The channel is important, but it does not equal traffic; traffic is important, yet it does not equal revenue.
To assess how much this U.S. route is truly worth, we must at least wait for Hyperliquid to deliver five report cards.
First Report Card: Regulatory Approval - First Confirm Whether the Door Can Open
Payward's plan does not allow U.S. users direct access to all existing perpetual markets of Hyperliquid.
According to official disclosures, Bitnomial Exchange will act as a designated contract market regulated by the CFTC, with Bitnomial Clearinghouse responsible for clearing; NinjaTrader Clearing will support customer accounts as a registered futures commission merchant. Only accounts that have opened through NinjaTrader and are simultaneously listed on the permit lists of both NinjaTrader and Bitnomial will qualify to trade these new contracts.
The strategic value of this structure is that it separates "on-chain matching" from "licensed customer access": Hyperliquid provides market infrastructure while regulated entities take on customer access, clearing, and compliance obligations.
But until the regulatory documents are truly implemented, it remains a plan, not an available product.
The market can price the probability of success but cannot directly account the probability of success as already realized revenue.
Second Report Card: Official Launch - After Approval, We Need to See What Is Sold
Even if regulatory approval is granted, the next step is still not allowing all U.S. users to trade freely on Hyperliquid's native market.
CoinDesk points out that Payward has not publicly disclosed the specific date for launch, fee schedule, expected trading volume, and economic arrangements between both parties; the existing Hyperliquid perpetual markets will not automatically open to U.S. customers.
What truly determines the attractiveness of the product are the subsequent details:
- Which contracts will be launched first;
- How leverage, margin, and trading hours are designed;
- Whether market depth and price spreads meet professional trader requirements;
- Whether compliance constraints weaken the competitive experience of the native Hyperliquid;
- Whether fees are sufficient to attract customers to move from existing futures, options, or overseas channels.
HIP-3 offers market deployment capabilities, not volume guarantees.
According to official documents, HIP-3 deployers are responsible for contract definitions, oracles, leverage limits, and market settlements, with each deployed DEX having independent margins, order books, and parameter settings. In Payward's plan, these responsibilities will be undertaken by licensed institutions, meaning it is more like "a new market built on the Hyperliquid underlying" rather than moving the native frontend intact into the U.S.
This distinction determines how the U.S. business should be valued: it should look at the new market's own products and data, not directly extrapolate from the existing Hyperliquid trading performance.
Third Report Card: Customer Conversion - 6.6 Million Accounts Do Not Equate to 6.6 Million Traders
Payward disclosed that as of June 30, 2026, there are 6.6 million funded accounts in its system.
This is a strong distribution resource but does not represent an active customer base that Hyperliquid can directly utilize.
From existing accounts to actual on-chain transactions, there are at least four additional steps:
Meet regional and eligibility requirements → Open a futures account → Pass both parties' permit lists → Fund and trade continuously
Any drop in conversion rates at any step will lead to a noticeable shrinkage in the final transaction volume.
Moreover, perpetual contracts are not typical spot products. Whether U.S. customers are willing to learn about funding rates, margins, and continuous contract mechanisms, whether institutions are willing to access APIs, and whether professional traders can achieve sufficient capital efficiency all need to be answered by behavior data after launch.
Therefore, "Payward has 6.6 million funded accounts" only proves the potential distribution capability of the entry; it does not directly infer how many of those accounts will become Hyperliquid users.
Account openings are channel indicators, while transactions are business indicators.
Fourth Report Card: Incremental Transactions - New Access May Just Be Old Traffic through a New Door
Even if the U.S. HIP-3 market sees considerable transaction volume, one must continue to ask: are these transactions new demand or merely a transfer of existing trading activity?
The value of the two is entirely different.
If a customer was already trading U.S. crypto perpetuals within the Payward system and merely switches their orders to new contracts operating on Hyperliquid, then Hyperliquid gained infrastructure adoption but did not necessarily create an equal scale of new market demand.
Conversely, if the new on-chain structure attracted customers who previously could not or did not wish to participate in perpetual trading, and brought in new market-making funds, API strategies, and institutional hedging demand, this would signify higher quality growth.
After launch, it is worthwhile to track not just the total transaction volume, but the following four items:
This is also why a partnership announcement cannot directly fill a full-year revenue model.
The announcement proves both parties are willing to build the road, but sustained transactions prove if people will walk this path long-term.
Fifth Report Card: Fee Recapture - Transaction Volume Does Not Equal HYPE Value Capture
The final verification truly involves HYPE.
Hyperliquid's official documents confirm that the Assistance Fund will automatically convert the transaction fees it receives into HYPE during the L1 execution process, with the HYPE subsequently permanently removed from circulation and total supply.
However, platform fees do not all go into the Assistance Fund.
Fees may also flow to HLP and market deployers; HIP-3 deployers can set additional fee sharing, and some markets may enable Growth Mode, reducing overall fees by at least 90%.
Thus, from the transaction volume in the U.S. market to HYPE value recapturing, there remains a complete calculation chain:
U.S. market transaction volume × actual fee rate × protocol retention rate × Assistance Fund distribution ratio = potential HYPE recapture
The most critical variables currently - U.S. contract fee rates, commercial sharing, subsidy arrangements, and expected transaction volume - have not yet been disclosed.3
This means any model that directly multiplies "U.S. market scale" by Hyperliquid's native fee rate, counting it all as HYPE buyback, skips the most important business terms.
The correct sequence should be: first look at transaction volume, then the take rate, and finally the recapture.
Having users does not equal having transactions; having transactions does not equal having protocol revenue; having protocol revenue also does not equal fully buying back HYPE.
So why is this news still important?
Being rigorous does not mean being bearish.
Payward clearly states in the announcement that Hyperliquid is the first protocol it plans to deploy for U.S. customers and hopes this framework can later be replicated across more products and markets.
The strategic significance of this may even outweigh how much short-term new transaction volume is gained.
If the plan ultimately succeeds, Hyperliquid will prove something that has yet to be fully validated in the past: order books on public blockchains can serve as the foundational infrastructure for licensed exchanges and clearing systems.
U.S. customers will see regulated brokers and futures accounts, with trading and clearing obligations assumed by licensed institutions; however, market matching and recording can run on Hyperliquid.
This is not simply about adding a region but upgrading Hyperliquid from "a blockchain exchange actively accessed by users" to "an underlying trading platform that other financial institutions can access."
Thus, this route deserves to be kept an eye on. However, the focus should not stop at the cooperation headline but gradually shift from the announcement to regulatory documents, launched products, actual transactions, and fee recaptures.
HYPE has already moved forward; next, we need to catch the valuation with evidence
HYPE rose from 78.23 dollars on September 16 to 94.05 dollars on September 21, an increase of about 20%; a snapshot of the page at 19:38 on September 22 showed the price at about 94.65 dollars, with a 24-hour range of 92.06 to 95.99 dollars.
These are clear historical data points, not the real-time price at the time of this release, nor do they imply that 96 dollars or 92 dollars inherently form a must-rise, must-fall position.
What they truly indicate is: the price has already reflected some optimistic expectations early.
If subsequent developments consist only of old announcements being reiterated, with no regulatory approval, product launches, or business data, the same positive news should not be recounted in valuation. Conversely, if a robust price is coupled with healthy increases in open interest, stable funding rates, and new formal documents appear, the market has then acquired new evidence.
The most expensive mistake in trading is not being wrong once, but paying for the same news twice.
Use AiCoin to Turn Announcement Trading into Evidence Trading
In facing such high expectations and long realization cycles, ordinary users need not to quickly forward titles, but rather a framework for continuous verification.
On the AiCoin mobile terminal, you can first mark five nodes: regulatory approval, official launch, active accounts, transaction volume, and fee recapture, then observe whether HYPE price, open interest, and funding rates synchronize. When prices rise without following OI, or funding rates heat up quickly, the market is likely more in a trading sentiment; when smart money accounts continually increase real positions, along with new business evidence, the credibility of the trend is higher.
After confirming the trading logic, you can connect to Hyperliquid through AiCoin for execution and continue to manage positions on the mobile terminal. In this way, focusing on the U.S. business is no longer just about chasing news but integrating fundamental progress, on-chain fund behavior, and actual transactions into the same decision-making chain.
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The rebates can reduce the real trading costs that have already occurred; the yet-to-be-approved U.S. business can only be seen as a future option that requires continuous verification. The two should not be conflated.
Conclusion: The Door Has Value, But the Tollbooth Determines Value Capture
Payward's announcement has made progress beyond prior market rumors: the participants, technical paths, and regulatory responsibilities are clearer.
However, it has still not crossed the entire distance from planning to revenue.
Regulatory approval determines whether the door can open, official launch determines what comes after the door, customer conversion determines how many people come in, incremental transactions determine whether it is new demand, and fee recapture ultimately determines how much value HYPE gains.
These five report cards are all necessary to fully assess the U.S. story.
What we should look forward to most from Hyperliquid is not the slogan that "Americans can finally come to trade," but rather that it may become the on-chain trading infrastructure truly used by licensed financial institutions in the U.S.
This imaginative space is large enough, but the bigger the story, the more it should be priced based on real data after launch.
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