Yesterday, the market entered a bearish resonance as expected, with BTC quickly retracing around 3000 points from its high, and ETH concurrently falling about 150 points. The short-term overheating after consecutive short squeezes has finally been released, leading to a round of concentrated cleaning of bullish leverage.
The current major contradiction in the market is very clear:
The macro interest rate environment suppresses the upside, but institutional spot funds continue to support and limit the downside space.
US Treasury yields continue to operate at high levels, coupled with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which means that a high interest rate environment is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, creating continuous pressure on the valuations of risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
However, the market has not entered a state of panic.
The Fear and Greed Index remains in the "Greed" zone, indicating that yesterday's rapid pullback did not trigger a massive panic sell-off. Meanwhile, spot ETF funds continue to show strong support, and institutional funds have not seen a significant concentrated withdrawal.
Therefore, this round of market movement is temporarily better defined as:
Mid-term structure is relatively strong, with a short-term pullback; macro pressure limits the upside space, while spot funds limit the downside depth.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Mid-term bullish, short-term adjustment, primarily short positions, with some support for long positions.
BTC quickly fell from around 87400 and triggered a large number of long liquidations in a short time, now re-entering a weak consolidation phase around 84000.
The biggest positive signal from yesterday was that after the price dipped to around 83500, there was a clear support, and it did not form a continuous collapse.
From a larger cycle view, the mid-term structure has not been significantly damaged; however, after the previous continuous rise in the short cycle, the 4-hour RSI has quickly fallen from the overbought region, indicating that the bullish momentum is cooling.
Thus today, it's not appropriate to simply chase short positions, nor is it suitable to judge the end of the pullback based on a single support.
A more reasonable rhythm is:
Observe for buying support around 83000—83500;
Watch for pressure on the rebound to 85000—85500;
If there is a strong pull again above 86900, continue to guard against high-level selling pressure.
If the 83000 range remains effectively supported, this round of adjustment can still be processed as a normal pullback after the rise; if key support is continuously lost, a reassessment of the adjustment level is necessary.
Support: 83000-83500, 82600
Pressure: 85000-85500, 86900-87200
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: The structure is relatively stronger than BTC, but the short cycle remains primarily short positions, with support for long positions.
ETH faced resistance after previously hitting around 2788, and high-level selling pressure has been validated.
Currently, the short cycle is starting to enter a repair phase, with 1-hour and 2-hour periods having rebound conditions, and the 4-hour period gradually reaching a repairable position, meaning that the cost-effectiveness of continuing to chase short positions has decreased.
However, more significant cycles still exhibit clear issues.
The adjustments on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily levels have not been fully completed, hence even if a short-term rebound occurs, it is still more suitable to define it as a repair rather than a new upward trend.
Additionally, a potential MACD negative divergence has already emerged during the preceding upward process. If the price continues to fail to break through 2788, caution is needed against the further weakening of high-level structure.
Today, key observations include:
Can support continue to form around 2661;
After the rebound to 2720—2750, is there a stall in the rise;
2788 remains a key pressure point determining whether ETH can strengthen again.
Support: 2661, 2633, 2536
Pressure: 2720, 2750, 2788
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